What Happened?
Shares of blockchain infrastructure company Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) jumped 5.4% in the afternoon session after the major indices rebounded (Nasdaq +1.5%, S&P 500 +1.0%) as reports pointed to easing tensions between Israel and Iran. The Wall Street Journal said senior Iranian officials had signaled a willingness to restart stalled nuclear talks, on the condition that Washington refrain from joining Israel's ongoing strikes.
This development triggered a significant decline in oil prices, easing inflation concerns. Also, it is possible some investors were buying the dip following the sell-off at the end of the previous week.
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What The Market Is Telling Us
Coinbase’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 63 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 13 days ago when the stock gained 5.1% as stocks edged higher (Nasdaq +0.9%, S&P +0.6%) while momentum in the crypto space picked up amid concerns the proposed spending bill (One Big Beautiful Bill) would raise the already bloated US fiscal deficit, making it difficult to keep inflation under control.
Inflation fears, partly triggered by the ongoing trade war, have driven a demand for safe-haven assets and alternative stores of value. These concerns are fueling demand for digital assets, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in May 2025. For crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase, this means more people are trading, which often translates into sales.
Coinbase is down 0.3% since the beginning of the year, and at $256.38 per share, it is trading 25.4% below its 52-week high of $343.62 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Coinbase’s shares at the IPO in April 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $780.98.
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