ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

1 Surging Stock with Impressive Fundamentals and 2 to Question

HLT Cover Image

Each stock in this article is trading near its 52-week high. These elevated prices usually indicate some degree of investor confidence, business improvements, or favorable market conditions.

However, not all companies with momentum are long-term winners, and many investors have lost money by following short-term trends. Keeping that in mind, here is one stock we think lives up to the hype and two not so much.

Two Stocks to Sell:

Hilton (HLT)

One-Month Return: +6.6%

Founded in 1919, Hilton Worldwide (NYSE: HLT) is a global hospitality company with a portfolio of hotel brands.

Why Are We Cautious About HLT?

  1. Scale is a double-edged sword because it limits the company’s growth potential compared to its smaller competitors, as reflected in its below-average annual revenue increases of 4.3% for the last five years
  2. Softer revenue per room over the past two years suggests it might have to invest in new amenities such as restaurants and bars to attract customers
  3. Estimated sales growth of 6.8% for the next 12 months implies demand will slow from its two-year trend

Hilton’s stock price of $264.88 implies a valuation ratio of 32.5x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with HLT, check out our full research report (it’s free).

Casella Waste Systems (CWST)

One-Month Return: -1.6%

Starting with the founder picking up garbage with a pickup truck he purchased using savings from high school, Casella (NASDAQ: CWST) offers waste management services for businesses, residents, and the government.

Why Does CWST Worry Us?

  1. Absence of organic revenue growth over the past two years suggests it may have to lean into acquisitions to drive its expansion
  2. Expenses have increased as a percentage of revenue over the last five years as its operating margin fell by 4 percentage points
  3. Earnings per share were flat while its revenue grew over the last two years, partly because it issued new shares

Casella Waste Systems is trading at $115.39 per share, or 95.7x forward P/E. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than CWST.

One Stock to Buy:

Popular (BPOP)

One-Month Return: +6.7%

Founded in 1893 as the first bank in Puerto Rico to serve the working class, Popular (NASDAQ: BPOP) is a financial holding company that provides retail, mortgage, and commercial banking services primarily in Puerto Rico and the mainland United States.

Why Is BPOP a Top Pick?

  1. Share buybacks catapulted its annual earnings per share growth to 11.8%, which outperformed its revenue gains over the last five years
  2. Annual tangible book value per share growth of 19.2% over the past two years was outstanding, reflecting strong capital accumulation this cycle
  3. Stellar return on equity showcases management’s ability to surface highly profitable business ventures

At $110.51 per share, Popular trades at 1.3x forward P/B. Is now the time to initiate a position? Find out in our full research report, it’s free.

High-Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election sent major indices to all-time highs, but stocks have retraced as investors debate the health of the economy and the potential impact of tariffs.

While this leaves much uncertainty around 2025, a few companies are poised for long-term gains regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate, like our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Comfort Systems (+782% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free. Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Find your next big winner with StockStory today

Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.