What Happened?
Shares of health coverage company Centene (NYSE: CNC) fell 3% in the morning session after the company was downgraded by Cantor Fitzgerald, which also lowered its price target on the stock. The downgrade from Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Sarah James added to a period of negative sentiment surrounding the health insurer. The negative outlook stemmed from Centene's recent withdrawal of its 2025 financial guidance. The company pulled its forecast after an independent report revealed that its Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans had slower-than-expected membership growth and higher-than-anticipated morbidity, which is the rate of disease or illness. This resulted in a significant $1.8 billion downward revision in expected revenue.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Centene’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 13 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 3 days ago when the stock gained 5.9% on the news that the company reported second-quarter results that missed earnings estimates, but the stock rallied as investors looked past the disappointment.
Centene posted its first quarterly earnings miss in four years, swinging to an adjusted loss per share of $0.16, a stark contrast to the profit recorded in the same quarter last year. The company also set its 2025 earnings guidance significantly below analyst expectations, citing worse-than-expected cost trends in its Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace business. Despite the profitability issues, total revenues for the quarter came in strong at $48.7 billion, handily beating expectations. While the stock initially dropped sharply in pre-market trading on the earnings miss, it reversed course and rallied during the company's earnings call. This turnaround suggested investors may have gained confidence from management's commentary and their stated plan to address the cost issues and restore profitability.
Centene is down 54.4% since the beginning of the year, and at $27.59 per share, it is trading 65.6% below its 52-week high of $80.23 from September 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Centene’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $429.47.
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