What Happened?
Shares of health coverage company Centene (NYSE: CNC) fell 3.3% in the morning session after JPMorgan cut its price target on the managed care company to $30 from $48. This move by JPMorgan followed Centene's recent second-quarter earnings report, where the company posted a loss of $0.16 per share, missing analyst estimates. The poor results were largely attributed to a significant reduction in the company's net 2025 Marketplace risk adjustment revenue transfer estimate, an issue that first came to light when Centene withdrew its full-year guidance on July 1st. The company's performance prompted a series of downgrades from Wall Street, with firms like UBS, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley also cutting their price targets, signaling widespread concern over the company's ability to restore its earnings trajectory.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Centene’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 14 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 1 day ago when the stock dropped 3% on the news that the company was downgraded by Cantor Fitzgerald, which also lowered its price target on the stock. The downgrade from Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Sarah James added to a period of negative sentiment surrounding the health insurer. The negative outlook stemmed from Centene's recent withdrawal of its 2025 financial guidance. The company pulled its forecast after an independent report revealed that its Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace plans had slower-than-expected membership growth and higher-than-anticipated morbidity, which is the rate of disease or illness. This resulted in a significant $1.8 billion downward revision in expected revenue.
Centene is down 57.2% since the beginning of the year, and at $25.90 per share, it is trading 67.7% below its 52-week high of $80.23 from September 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Centene’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $390.42.
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