ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

1 Unpopular Stock that Deserves Some Love and 2 to Be Wary Of

ORLY Cover Image

Wall Street has issued downbeat forecasts for the stocks in this article. These predictions are rare - financial institutions typically hesitate to say bad things about a company because it can jeopardize their other revenue-generating business lines like M&A advisory.

At StockStory, we look beyond the headlines with our independent analysis to determine whether these bearish calls are justified. Keeping that in mind, here is one stock where Wall Street’s pessimism is creating a buying opportunity and two facing legitimate challenges.

Two Stocks to Sell:

The ONE Group (STKS)

Consensus Price Target: $5.50 (16% implied return)

Doubling as a hospitality services provider for hotels and resorts, The One Group Hospitality (NASDAQ: STKS) is an upscale restaurant company that operates STK Steakhouse and Kona Grill.

Why Do We Pass on STKS?

  1. Weak same-store sales trends over the past two years suggest there may be few opportunities in its core markets to open new restaurants
  2. Falling earnings per share over the last five years has some investors worried as stock prices ultimately follow EPS over the long term
  3. 7× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio makes lenders less willing to extend additional capital, potentially necessitating dilutive equity offerings

At $4.74 per share, The ONE Group trades at 1.4x forward EV-to-EBITDA. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than STKS.

Hilton (HLT)

Consensus Price Target: $250.20 (-6.4% implied return)

Founded in 1919, Hilton Worldwide (NYSE: HLT) is a global hospitality company with a portfolio of hotel brands.

Why Are We Cautious About HLT?

  1. Annual sales growth of 9.9% over the last two years lagged behind its consumer discretionary peers as its large revenue base made it difficult to generate incremental demand
  2. Weak revenue per room over the past two years indicates challenges in maintaining pricing power and occupancy rates
  3. Estimated sales growth of 6.8% for the next 12 months implies demand will slow from its two-year trend

Hilton’s stock price of $267.20 implies a valuation ratio of 33.2x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with HLT, check out our full research report (it’s free).

One Stock to Buy:

O'Reilly (ORLY)

Consensus Price Target: $97.25 (6% implied return)

Serving both the DIY customer and professional mechanic, O’Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY) is an auto parts and accessories retailer that sells everything from fuel pumps to car air fresheners to mufflers.

Why Should You Buy ORLY?

  1. Comparable store sales rose by 4.5% on average over the past two years, demonstrating its ability to drive increased spending at existing locations
  2. Unique assortment of products and pricing power result in a best-in-class gross margin of 51.3%
  3. Strong free cash flow margin of 12% enables it to reinvest or return capital consistently

O'Reilly is trading at $91.75 per share, or 30.5x forward P/E. Is now a good time to buy? Find out in our full research report, it’s free.

Stocks We Like Even More

Market indices reached historic highs following Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November 2024, but the outlook for 2025 is clouded by new trade policies that could impact business confidence and growth.

While this has caused many investors to adopt a "fearful" wait-and-see approach, we’re leaning into our best ideas that can grow regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate. Take advantage of Mr. Market by checking out our Top 5 Growth Stocks for this month. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Comfort Systems (+782% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free. Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Find your next big winner with StockStory today

Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.