What Happened?
Shares of outdoor specialty retailer Sportsman's Warehouse (NASDAQ: SPWH) jumped 3.1% in the morning session after markets rebounded following a sharp sell-off in the previous trading session as a weaker-than-expected July jobs report fueled investor hopes for a potential interest rate cut. The U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, falling well short of the 110,000 expected by economists. This disappointing data has led to a dramatic shift in market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve's next move. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September interest rate cut has surged from around 40% to over 80%. Lower interest rates generally stimulate the economy by making borrowing cheaper for consumers. This can lead to increased spending on discretionary items, such as apparel and home goods, which directly benefits consumer retail companies. The prospect of more accommodative monetary policy is therefore boosting investor confidence in the sector's outlook.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $3.35, up 2.3% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Sportsman's Warehouse’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 77 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 3 days ago when the stock dropped 4.7% on the news that the broader market tumbled in the morning session after a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs report and the announcement of new, widespread tariffs on imported goods. The U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, falling far short of the 109,000 forecast.
Compounding the issue, job gains for May and June were revised down by a combined 258,000, signaling what some see as “increasing signs of fragility” in the labor market. Simultaneously, the White House announced new tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, on goods from 92 countries. This “double whammy” of negative news has intensified fears that ongoing trade wars are damaging the U.S. economy. The combination of a weaker labor market and new trade barriers has rattled investor confidence, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates to support the economy.
Sportsman's Warehouse is up 30.2% since the beginning of the year, but at $3.35 per share, it is still trading 19.6% below its 52-week high of $4.16 from June 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Sportsman's Warehouse’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $200.30.
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