What Happened?
Shares of healthcare software provider Health Catalyst (NASDAQ: HCAT) fell 21.5% in the afternoon session after the company reported second-quarter results that met expectations but slashed its full-year revenue forecast and provided a weak outlook for the upcoming quarter. The healthcare software provider’s revenue of $80.72 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.04 were both in line with Wall Street estimates for the second quarter. However, investors were focused on the future, as the company projected third-quarter revenue of $75 million, which was roughly 12% below analyst expectations. Furthermore, Health Catalyst cut its full-year revenue forecast by 7.5% to $310 million. While the company did beat adjusted EBITDA estimates for the quarter and raised its full-year outlook for the metric, the significant reduction in its revenue guidance overshadowed the positive news, sending shares lower.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Health Catalyst’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 41 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for Health Catalyst and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 4 days ago when the stock gained 3.1% on the news that the Software as a Service (SaaS) sector rebounded following the sell-off in the previous trading session as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report increased the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed the U.S. economy added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the 110,000 forecast. This, combined with downward revisions for May and June, signaled a cooling labor market to investors. In response, market expectations for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve surged from roughly 40% to over 80%. A potential rate cut is generally favorable for growth sectors like technology and SaaS, as lower rates can increase the present value of their future earnings, boosting stock valuations.
Health Catalyst is down 61.1% since the beginning of the year, and at $2.86 per share, it is trading 68.3% below its 52-week high of $9.02 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Health Catalyst’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $81.22.
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