What Happened?
Shares of beverage company Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ: KDP) fell 3.5% in the afternoon session after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock to "Underperform" from "Neutral," citing broad concerns over its recent merger announcement with JDE Peet.
The analyst set a new price target of $24, describing the transaction as one of the most unfavorably received deals in the consumer staples sector. Investor anxiety appeared to stem from two key issues: the 33% premium Keurig Dr Pepper paid for JDE Peet's and the increased debt the company took on to finance the acquisition.
This sentiment was shared by other analysts, as Piper Sandler and UBS also lowered their price targets on the stock, pointing to worries about the company's financial leverage after the deal. The negative pressure pushed the stock to a new 52-week low, reflecting widespread skepticism about the merger's value.
The shares closed the day at $25.93, down 4.3% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Keurig Dr Pepper’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 4 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 28 days ago when the stock dropped 8.2% on the news that it announced a plan to acquire JDE Peet's for approximately $18.4 billion and then split into two independent companies.
The beverage giant announced a definitive agreement to acquire Dutch coffee firm JDE Peet's in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $18.4 billion. Following the acquisition, Keurig Dr Pepper plans a major corporate restructuring by separating into two independent, publicly traded companies: one focused on global coffee and the other on North American refreshment beverages. Investors appear to be reacting to the high cost of the deal, which represents a significant 33% premium over JDE Peet's recent average stock price.
This strategic move effectively unwinds the 2018 merger of Dr Pepper and Keurig. While the company's beverage unit has performed well since that tie-up, its coffee segment has struggled, a factor likely influencing this decision to create two more focused firms.
Keurig Dr Pepper is down 18.1% since the beginning of the year, and at $26.00 per share, it is trading 31.6% below its 52-week high of $38.01 from September 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Keurig Dr Pepper’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $933.55.
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