Young adult apparel retailer Tilly’s (NYSE: TLYS) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q2 CY2025, with sales falling 7.1% year on year to $151.3 million. Next quarter’s revenue guidance of $137 million underwhelmed, coming in 2.9% below analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $0.10 per share was significantly above analysts’ consensus estimates.

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StockStory’s Take

Tilly’s saw a positive market reaction following its Q2 results, despite missing Wall Street’s revenue expectations and reporting a 7.1% year-on-year sales decline. Management credited notable progress in product margin improvement, streamlined inventory levels, and disciplined cost control for the company’s return to profitability. CFO Michael Henry highlighted, “Meaningfully improved product margins, significantly reduced inventory levels, improved inventory aging, and reduced SG&A expenses compared to last year's second quarter” as the main contributors to the quarter’s performance. The quarter marked Tilly’s first profit in nearly three years, underscoring the impact of operational changes.

Looking forward, Tilly’s guidance reflects management’s caution around seasonal demand patterns and ongoing macroeconomic pressures affecting discretionary spending. While leadership is optimistic about recent progress, the outlook embeds the potential for sales slowdowns post-back-to-school and continued cost headwinds, especially in California store operations. Michael Henry emphasized, “We better contemplate that behavior [seasonal slowdown] in terms of how we look at things going forward,” and reiterated the company’s focus on maintaining lean inventory and further SG&A reductions to support profitability.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management attributed the quarter’s results to inventory right-sizing, improved product assortment, and tighter expense discipline, while also navigating vendor and tariff challenges.

• Inventory discipline delivered margin gains: Tilly’s achieved higher product margins by planning for lower inventory levels, enabling more current assortments and fewer markdowns. Management noted that a 14.5% reduction in inventory, on top of a smaller store base, was central to margin expansion and improved profitability.
• Apparel outperformed in August: Management observed that all apparel categories delivered positive results in August, signaling a rebound in core product demand. CFO Michael Henry stated that apparel strength was the primary driver behind the positive comparable sales in the final month of the quarter.
• E-commerce impacted by vendor decisions: A notable decline in e-commerce sales during August was attributed to a third-party brand’s distribution change, which removed $1.8 million in net sales. Management clarified that this was a broader industry shift and not unique to Tilly’s, mitigating concerns about underlying digital trends.
• SG&A savings from payroll optimization: Tilly’s continued to realize cost savings through lower store payroll, reduced temporary labor, and more efficient corporate staffing. The company expects further SG&A reductions as it refines labor management, particularly in response to minimum wage increases in California.
• Tariff impact limited for now: While tariffs remain volatile, management projects only a modest $500,000 net impact on product costs for the remainder of the year. Ongoing mitigation efforts with suppliers and strategic sourcing changes have helped offset much of the potential headwind, though risks may increase in future periods.

Drivers of Future Performance

Management expects near-term results to be shaped by seasonal demand patterns, ongoing inventory discipline, and cost control initiatives, with potential headwinds from tariffs and store labor inflation.

• Seasonal demand swings: Tilly’s embeds a typical post-back-to-school sales slowdown into its guidance, reflecting a pattern of softer performance in September and October. Management remains cautious, despite improvements in product assortment and inventory health, as historical trends point to a recurring drop-off after the peak shopping period.
• Expense discipline remains focus: The company plans to maintain lean store payroll and refine labor allocation, particularly given continued minimum wage increases in California. Management expects ongoing SG&A savings to help offset revenue pressures and support profitability in the coming quarters.
• Tariff and vendor risks: While near-term tariff impacts are muted due to supplier mitigation, management warns that future risks remain, especially as tariff policies evolve. Changes in vendor distribution strategies, like the recent e-commerce shift, also pose uncertainties for sales and margin stability.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Over the coming quarters, our analyst team will be focused on (1) whether Tilly’s can sustain positive momentum in apparel sales beyond the back-to-school season, (2) the success of ongoing SG&A and payroll optimization as cost pressures in California persist, and (3) the impact of further inventory right-sizing on margins and product availability. Any significant shifts in vendor partnerships or tariff policy changes will also be key factors to monitor.

Tilly's currently trades at $2.13, up from $2.04 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).

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