ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

3 Profitable Stocks We Approach with Caution

SBGI Cover Image

Even if a company is profitable, it doesn’t always mean it’s a great investment. Some struggle to maintain growth, face looming threats, or fail to reinvest wisely, limiting their future potential.

Profits are valuable, but they’re not everything. At StockStory, we help you identify the companies that have real staying power. That said, here are three profitable companies to steer clear of and a few better alternatives.

Sinclair (SBGI)

Trailing 12-Month GAAP Operating Margin: 13.8%

With over 2,400 hours of local news produced weekly and 640 broadcast channels reaching millions of American homes, Sinclair (NASDAQ: SBGI) operates a network of 185 local television stations across 86 U.S. markets, producing news programming and distributing content from major networks.

Why Are We Out on SBGI?

  1. Annual sales declines of 9.2% for the past five years show its products and services struggled to connect with the market during this cycle
  2. Sales were less profitable over the last five years as its earnings per share fell by 21.9% annually, worse than its revenue declines
  3. Free cash flow margin shrank by 8.2 percentage points over the last five years, suggesting the company is consuming more capital to stay competitive

Sinclair’s stock price of $14.20 implies a valuation ratio of 1.9x forward EV-to-EBITDA. Check out our free in-depth research report to learn more about why SBGI doesn’t pass our bar.

American Express Global Business Travel (GBTG)

Trailing 12-Month GAAP Operating Margin: 6%

Originally spun off from American Express in 2014 but maintaining the Amex GBT brand, Global Business Travel Group (NYSE: GBTG) provides end-to-end business travel and expense management solutions, connecting corporate clients with travel suppliers and offering specialized software services.

Why Do We Think Twice About GBTG?

  1. Estimated sales growth of 5% for the next 12 months implies demand will slow from its three-year trend
  2. Gross margin of 61.1% is below its competitors, leaving less money to invest in areas like marketing and R&D
  3. Lacking free cash flow generation means it has few chances to reinvest for growth, repurchase shares, or distribute capital

At $8.21 per share, American Express Global Business Travel trades at 1.5x forward price-to-sales. If you’re considering GBTG for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more.

Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK)

Trailing 12-Month GAAP Operating Margin: 10.8%

Founded in 1991, Graphic Packaging (NYSE: GPK) is a provider of paper-based packaging solutions for a wide range of products.

Why Do We Pass on GPK?

  1. Declining unit sales over the past two years indicate demand is soft and that the company may need to revise its strategy
  2. Falling earnings per share over the last two years has some investors worried as stock prices ultimately follow EPS over the long term
  3. Free cash flow margin dropped by 8.9 percentage points over the last five years, implying the company became more capital intensive as competition picked up

Graphic Packaging Holding is trading at $20.96 per share, or 9.7x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with GPK, check out our full research report (it’s free).

Stocks We Like More

Donald Trump’s April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs sent markets into a tailspin, but stocks have since rebounded strongly, proving that knee-jerk reactions often create the best buying opportunities.

The smart money is already positioning for the next leg up. Don’t miss out on the recovery - check out our Top 5 Strong Momentum Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free. Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Find your next big winner with StockStory today

StockStory is growing and hiring equity analyst and marketing roles. Are you a 0 to 1 builder passionate about the markets and AI? See the open roles here.

Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.