What Happened?
Shares of coffeehouse chain Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) fell 3.4% in the afternoon session after the Trump administration's announcement of new global tariffs, reignited trade policy uncertainty. The move came swiftly after the Supreme Court ruled the previous week that the president could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for such duties, a decision that had initially sent markets higher. However, the administration invoked a different authority, the Trade Act of 1974, to impose a 15% global tariff for up to 150 days. The rapid reimposition of trade barriers creates significant uncertainty for companies across multiple sectors that depend on international supply chains and global trade. Investors are now weighing the potential impact of these new duties on corporate earnings and broader economic activity.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Starbucks’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 7 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 11 months ago when the stock dropped 10.7% on the news that President Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on all US imports, set at a minimum rate of 10% or more. Markets reacted negatively to the announcement, reflecting deep concerns among investors about the broader economic implications. The tariffs were likely seen as a significant threat to global trade flows, with the potential to slow economic growth, drive up consumer prices, and spark retaliatory measures. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives captured the prevailing market anxiety, stating, "We would characterize this slate of tariffs as 'worse than the worst case scenario' the Street was fearing." His comment highlighted how the scope and severity of the tariffs far exceeded Wall Street's expectations, adding a new layer of uncertainty for businesses and investors.
Starbucks is up 13.1% since the beginning of the year, but at $95.00 per share, it is still trading 18% below its 52-week high of $115.81 from February 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Starbucks’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $937.12.
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