ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

3 Consumer Stocks That Fall Short

MAR Cover Image

Most consumer discretionary businesses succeed or fail based on the broader economy. This sensitive demand profile can cause discretionary stocks to plummet when macro uncertainty enters the fray, and over the past six months, the industry has shed 10.1%. This drop was worse than the S&P 500’s 3.2% loss.

While some companies have durable competitive advantages that enable them to grow consistently, the odds aren’t great for the ones we’re analyzing today. With that said, here are three consumer stocks we’re swiping left on.

Marriott (MAR)

Market Cap: $84.14 billion

Founded by J. Willard Marriott in 1927, Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR) is a global hospitality company with a portfolio of over 7,000 properties and 30 brands, spanning 130+ countries and territories.

Why Do We Avoid MAR?

  1. Revenue per room has underperformed over the past two years, suggesting it may need to develop new facilities
  2. Subpar operating margin of 15.4% constrains its ability to invest in process improvements or effectively respond to new competitive threats
  3. Free cash flow margin is anticipated to expand by 1.1 percentage points over the next year, providing additional flexibility for investments and share buybacks/dividends

Marriott’s stock price of $316.38 implies a valuation ratio of 28.2x forward P/E. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including MAR in your portfolio.

Mister Car Wash (MCW)

Market Cap: $2.29 billion

Formerly known as Hotshine Holdings, Mister Car Wash (NYSE: MCW) offers car washes across the United States through its conveyorized service.

Why Do We Think MCW Will Underperform?

  1. Lagging same-store sales over the past two years suggest it might have to change its pricing and marketing strategy to stimulate demand
  2. Cash burn makes us question whether it can achieve sustainable long-term growth
  3. High net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 5× could force the company to raise capital at unfavorable terms if market conditions deteriorate

Mister Car Wash is trading at $7.00 per share, or 14.7x forward P/E. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than MCW.

Performance Food Group (PFGC)

Market Cap: $13.04 billion

With a massive network spanning 155 distribution centers and delivering over 250,000 different food products, Performance Food Group (NYSE: PFGC) distributes food and food-related products to over 300,000 restaurants, convenience stores, theaters, and institutions across North America.

Why Do We Steer Clear of PFGC?

  1. The company has faced growth challenges as its 19.8% annual revenue increases over the last five years fell short of other consumer discretionary companies
  2. Ability to fund investments or reward shareholders with increased buybacks or dividends is restricted by its weak free cash flow margin of 1.1% for the last two years
  3. Returns on capital are increasing as management makes relatively better investment decisions

At $83.01 per share, Performance Food Group trades at 16.6x forward P/E. If you’re considering PFGC for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more.

Stocks We Like More

ALSO WORTH WATCHING: Top 5 Momentum Stocks. The best time to own a great stock is when the market is finally noticing it. These aren't just high-quality businesses. Something is happening with them right now. Elite fundamentals meeting near-term momentum — both boxes checked at the same time.

Find out which stocks our AI platform is flagging this week. See this week's Strong Momentum stocks — FREE. Get Our Strong Momentum Stocks for Free HERE.

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Comfort Systems (+782% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.

Recent Quotes

View More
Symbol Price Change (%)
AMZN  209.77
+0.00 (0.00%)
AAPL  255.92
+0.00 (0.00%)
AMD  217.50
+0.00 (0.00%)
BAC  49.38
+0.00 (0.00%)
GOOG  294.46
+0.00 (0.00%)
META  574.46
+0.00 (0.00%)
MSFT  373.46
+0.00 (0.00%)
NVDA  177.39
+0.00 (0.00%)
ORCL  146.38
+0.00 (0.00%)
TSLA  360.59
+0.00 (0.00%)
Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.