Warren Buffett Thinks This Country Could Be the Next Big Bet

March 25, 2025 at 08:47 AM EDT

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When Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, speaks, the market listens. Buffett has made headlines from his selling spree, significantly raising his cash position to over $300 billion in Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.B) and (NYSE: BRK.A). His firm is often viewed as a barometer of the finance sector. Based on his recent filings, Berkshire has boosted its holdings in Japanese stocks, leading many to believe that’s where Buffett believes is the next hotspot.

Whether from natural demand or as a self-fulfilling prophecy, Japanese ETFs like the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSEARCA: EWJ) are outperforming U.S. benchmark indices, trading up 6.3% versus the S&P 500, which is down -3.77% year-to-date (YTD) as of this writing.

Tracking Warren Buffett’s Holdings Through SEC Filings

Money managers, analysts, and investors scrutinize Warren Buffett’s every stock move by tracking Berkshire’s SEC filings, which are legally required for their equity holdings. These filings are:

Form 13F: This filing discloses Berkshire’s U.S. equity holdings in publicly traded companies. It details individual stock positions, shares, and values at the end of the quarter. This filing is due within 45 days of each quarter’s end. Sometimes, Berkshire may request confidentiality for certain holdings.

Schedule 13D: This form is filed when Berkshire acquires over 5% with the intent to influence (active stake), due within five business days of crossing the 5% threshold.

Schedule 13G: This form is filed when Berkshire acquires over 5% for passive stakes, which is the typical Buffet filing, due within 45 days of year-end. If the stake crosses over 10%, then it must be filed within 10 days during the year.

Form 4: This is an insider transaction form that reports when a beneficial owner like Berkshire, who owns more than 10% of a stock, makes a change to their position within two business days of the transaction. Form 4 is filed to report changes in ownership, including buys or sales, like when Berkshire purchased 763,017 shares of oil and gas producer Occidental Petroleum Co. (NYSE: OXY) in February 2025.

What Makes Japan the Next Big Bet?

Berkshire Hathaway's subsidiary, National Indemnity Company, raised its stakes in five of Japan’s largest trading houses to just below the 10% threshold as a Beneficial Owner. The filings were made with Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) via the Kanto Local Finance Bureau. The filings disclosed raising stakes of:

Mitsui Co. increased from 8.09% to 9.82%
Mitsubishi Co. increased from 8.31% to 9.67%
Sumitomo Co. increased from 8.23% to 9.29%
Itochu Co. increased from 7.47% to 8.53%
Marubeni Co. increase from 8.3% to 9.3%

As a value investor, Buffett sees these major trading houses, called “sogo shosha” and known as general trading houses, as undervalued companies with strong fundamentals that provide dividends and long-term potential. Berkshire first started acquiring stakes in 2019. Buffett may also be hedging currency risk by selling debt to arbitrage the difference between dividend and bond coupon payments he makes in order to service the debt.

Buffet may view Japan as a value play with the potential for an economic comeback. The Bank of Japan may be pressured into raising interest rates as core inflation reached 3% in February 2025.

The Easiest Way to Invest Like Warren Buffett

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Numerous money managers and investors attempt to piggyback on Berkshire’s stock purchases to emulate their returns.

Websites and newsletters are dedicated to just tracking Warren Buffett's positions to analyze the reasons for making these moves.

However, the easiest way to emulate the returns is by becoming an investor in Berkshire Hathaway. Like Warren Buffett, the easiest way to invest is to invest in Warren Buffett.

Since Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, priced at over $781,000 per share, may be out of reach for small investors, the smaller bite-sized stock BRK.B was created so more investors could partake, which is priced at $526.28 as of Mar. 25, 2025.

BRK.B Stock Chart

Berkshire is often seen as a mutual fund due to its public and private holdings. The firm actually files quarterly 10-Q and annual 10-K reports. However, Buffet downplays quarterly noise in favor of long-term returns.

In its latest filings, Berkshire has $334.2 billion in cash and $272 billion in stock. Berkshire owns 100% or holds at least 80% of over 180 subsidiaries.

Some of its well-known companies include GEICO Insurance, General Re, Precision Castparts, Fruit of the Loom, Shaw Industries, Marmon Group, Duracell, See's Candies, Business Wire, Helzberg Diamonds and NetJets.

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Warren Buffett Thinks This Country Could Be the Next Big Bet

Tracking Warren Buffett’s Holdings Through SEC Filings

What Makes Japan the Next Big Bet?

The Easiest Way to Invest Like Warren Buffett

Where Should You Invest $1,000 Right Now?

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