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Analysts See $4,000 Gold: 3 Ways to Invest at Varied Risk Levels

By: MarketBeat

May 02, 2025 at 07:45 AM EDT

Gold bars on nugget grains background, close-up — Photo

Despite gold hitting its huge milestone of $3,000 per ounce, several analysts are calling for gold to hit an even more monumental level: $4,000. Analysts at JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs see gold getting to $4,000 by mid-2026. Ed Yardeni at Yardeni Research is calling for the asset to reach this level by the end of 2025. Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Investment Officer at DoubleLine Capital, is often referred to as the “Bond King." He also thinks gold will hit $4,000, but isn’t sure when. Société Générale, one of the largest banks in France, is also calling for $4,000 if world geopolitics remain unstable. This analysis will dive into three investments with different risk levels that investors can use to take advantage of another big potential run in gold prices.

Risk Level 1: IAU, the Low-Cost Gold Tracking ETF

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A fast and simple way to invest in gold is through a gold bullion ETF. For this, the iShares Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: IAU) is a strong option. This ETF tracks the performance of physical gold, with one share now trading for around 2% of the price of a gold ounce. On a return basis, the fund tracks the price of gold extremely closely. The fund also has a notable advantage over another well-known gold-tracking ETF, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD).

IAU has an expense ratio of 0.25%, compared to 0.40% for GLD. Over time, that means more money in an investor’s pocket. IAU holds $46 billion in assets, a little under half of GLD’s, so it's still highly liquid. Given that a run to $4,000 gold may take time, IAU may be more cost-effective for long-term investors, while GLD could be better suited for active traders. Overall, IAU is the least risky option here—it simply tracks gold without additional variables.

Risk Level 2: GDX, the Preeminent Gold Mining ETF

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Next up is the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX), which holds 57 large gold mining stocks. This option carries moderate risk. Its returns are generally more volatile than gold ETFs like IAU but less extreme than the next investment on the list. GDX is up about 44% in 2025, compared to IAU’s 25%, showcasing its higher beta.

Still, the performance gap can swing both ways. Over the last three years, IAU returned 72%, while GDX returned just 46%. Operational issues like production delays can cause miners to lag behind gold prices. Daily volatility reflects this: IAU averages 0.7% moves, while GDX moves around 2%. With an expense ratio of 0.5%, GDX is a moderately priced option for those seeking leveraged exposure to gold.

Risk Level 10: NovaGold, the Exploratory Small-Cap Miner Sitting on Billions in Bullion

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Finally, there’s NovaGold Resources (NYSEAMERICAN: NG)—the riskiest option of the three. NovaGold is a pre-revenue gold exploration company that hasn’t mined a single ounce yet and continues to post quarterly losses while moving toward development.

But the upside is huge. NovaGold owns 60% of the Donlin Gold Project in Alaska, believed to hold 39 million ounces of gold. If developed, Nova could receive interest in roughly 660,000 ounces annually for 27 years, over $2 billion in annual revenue at current prices.

Still, production likely won’t begin before 2030. And it’s worth noting that Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD) exited its stake, highlighting the risks. Nova may miss the $4,000 gold window, or gold could retreat before production starts. However, Nova doesn’t need $4,000 gold to be successful. If production ramps up, Nova could make big profits with a price far below this.

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Analysts See $4,000 Gold: 3 Ways to Invest at Varied Risk Levels

Risk Level 1: IAU, the Low-Cost Gold Tracking ETF

Risk Level 2: GDX, the Preeminent Gold Mining ETF

Risk Level 10: NovaGold, the Exploratory Small-Cap Miner Sitting on Billions in Bullion

Where Should You Invest $1,000 Right Now?

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