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Regal Rexnord (RRX): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q3 Earnings?

By: StockStory

November 29, 2024 at 04:35 AM EST

RRX Cover Image

Regal Rexnord’s 20.4% return over the past six months has outpaced the S&P 500 by 6.2%, and its stock price has climbed to $172.86 per share. This run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.

Is there a buying opportunity in Regal Rexnord, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.

We’re glad investors have benefited from the price increase, but we're swiping left on Regal Rexnord for now. Here are three reasons why RRX doesn't excite us and a stock we'd rather own.

Why Is Regal Rexnord Not Exciting?

Headquartered in Milwaukee, Regal Rexnord (NYSE: RRX) provides power transmission and industrial automation products.

1. Core Business Falling Behind as Demand Declines

In addition to reported revenue, organic revenue is a useful data point for analyzing Engineered Components and Systems companies. This metric gives visibility into Regal Rexnord’s core business because it excludes one-time events such as mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures along with foreign currency fluctuations - non-fundamental factors that can manipulate the income statement.

Over the last two years, Regal Rexnord’s organic revenue averaged 5.9% year-on-year declines. This performance was underwhelming and implies it may need to improve its products, pricing, or go-to-market strategy. It also suggests Regal Rexnord might have to lean into acquisitions to grow, which isn’t ideal because M&A can be expensive and risky (integrations often disrupt focus). Regal Rexnord Organic Revenue Growth

2. Free Cash Flow Margin Dropping

If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.

As you can see below, Regal Rexnord’s margin dropped by 6 percentage points over the last five years. Regal Rexnord’s five-year free cash flow profile was compelling, but shareholders are surely hoping for its trend to reverse. Continued declines could signal that the business is becoming more capital-intensive. Its free cash flow margin for the trailing 12 months was 8%.

Regal Rexnord Trailing 12-Month Free Cash Flow Margin

3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines

A company’s ROIC, or return on invested capital, shows how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).

We typically prefer to invest in companies with high returns because it means they have viable business models, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is often what surprises the market and moves the stock price. Over the last few years, Regal Rexnord’s ROIC has decreased. Paired with its already low returns, these declines suggest its profitable growth opportunities are few and far between.

Regal Rexnord Trailing 12-Month Return On Invested Capital

Final Judgment

Regal Rexnord isn’t a terrible business, but it doesn’t pass our bar. With its shares outperforming the market lately, the stock trades at 15.3x forward price-to-earnings (or $172.86 per share). While this valuation is fair, the upside isn’t great compared to the potential downside. We're pretty confident there are superior stocks to buy right now. We’d recommend looking at TransDigm, a dominant Aerospace business that has perfected its M&A strategy.

Stocks We Would Buy Instead of Regal Rexnord

With rates dropping, inflation stabilizing, and the elections in the rearview mirror, all signs point to the start of a new bull run - and we’re laser-focused on finding the best stocks for this upcoming cycle.

Put yourself in the driver’s seat by checking out our Top 5 Growth Stocks for this month. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 175% over the last five years.

Stocks that made our list in 2019 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+2,691% between September 2019 and September 2024) as well as under-the-radar businesses like United Rentals (+550% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free.

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