• A number of markets made a late push to new session highs (and some lows) shortly before the close Wednesday. 

• Both gold and silver found increased buying interest as the day unfolded, most likely continued activity from central banks around the world. 

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• Corn led the Grains sector higher on what looked to be commercial buying interest throughout the session. 

As I talked about in this space yesterday, the Wilhelmi Element^[i] tells us the only price that matters is the close. Given this, when we see markets building strength heading down the day’s homestretch it gives the day’s move a much more bullish feel. I’ll dive into the Grains sector in a moment, but we see similar activity in Metals. Gold and Silver were solid throughout the day, then found another gear heading toward the close. As of this writing the December gold issue (GCZ25) was up $87 (2.1%) but paled in comparison to December silver (SIZ25) with a gain of $2.63 (5.2%). What can we read into this move? First and foremost, without knowing what the latest social media post from the US president might’ve been, Metals are telling us central banks from around the world are using the recent selloff to start buying again. Why? Because as hard as it is to believe, the political and economic uncertainty is getting stronger. We saw the other end of the spectrum in Energies where crude oil (CLZ25) was down $2.53 (4.2%) and near its session low late in the afternoon on solid commercial selling. How do we know this? The market’s backwardation weakened from the spot-month December through the February 2027 issue. 

King Corn was one of the market’s that stormed to new session highs shortly before the close. There is a lot going on with December corn (ZCZ25) these days. Recall from Tuesday’s Commentary when I mentioned how technical analysis was largely a myth. The Dec25 corn contract is a good example. Sunday night through Monday morning saw Dec25 open lower before taking out Friday’s low of $4.2675, as well as the previous low of $4.2650 from October 31, on its way to a low of $4.2625. However, this did not trigger the expected round of selling but instead uncovered new buying interest that has pushed Dec25 to a Wednesday high of $4.36. The contract is now within sight of its previous high of $4.37 from October 30. There is strong possibility funds continue to adjust positions, providing support, but we also see signs of commercial buying activity. December gained 1.0 cent on March which gained 1.0 cent on May which gained 0.25 cent on July. Further out, the Dec26 issue was unchanged at $4.70, equaling its highest close since June 18. As usual, the spotlight now turns to the National Corn Index and national average basis calculations later this evening. 

The soybean market was in the red for much of the early part of Wednesday’s session, then began to build bullish momentum into the close on what looked to be spillover buying from the corn market. Trade volume was not heavy with January (ZSF26) showing 113,000 contracts changing hands, as compared to Tuesday’s reported 123,300 contracts when the Jan issue closed 2.75 cents lower for the day. From a traditional technical point of view, lower trade volume on rallies was considered less bullish than those days when contracts closed higher on increased trade volume. It’s also interesting to note the CME reported an open interest decrease in the January issue yesterday of 3,100 contracts. Were these sellers back as buyers Wednesday? Or was the rally sparked by a new round of what looked to be commercial interest? January finished the day 6.5 cents in the green and gained 0.5 cent on March, 0.75 cent on May, and 1.25 cents on July. The consistency of the spread activity indicates commercial interests were buying late in the session. Who knows. Maybe it was buyers tied to Bangladesh. After all, we’ve been told that country is the next China. As with corn, the National Soybean Index will now take center stage. 

And then there’s the wheat sub-sector. Did I fool you? Did you think I was going to follow that opening as I tend to do, by saying the three wheat markets moved the opposite direction of corn and soybeans? Well, they didn’t. When the dying clang of the closing bell faded in the distance, all three wheat markets were in the green. Mostly. The December SRW issue (ZWZ25) was sitting on unchanged, but only 0.75 cent off its session high on trade volume of 86,000 contracts. It’s hard to say what we should read into this given Dec was unchanged, and Tuesday’s trade volume was 80,400 contracts. Indecision on the part of traders or a lack of interest? Both? Time will tell. What we do know, based on the Law of Supply and Demand, is SRW fundamentals remain bearish. But that doesn’t mean the market can’t rally. Over in HRW the December issue (KEZ25) closed with a gain of 1.75 cents but lost 0.75 cent to March and 1.25 cents to May. My Blink reaction is commercial traders were selling into the close, but we’ll know more when the National HRW Index comes out tonight. The new-crop July issue also closed 3.0 cents higher for no other reason than it can. 

^[i] Named for Gary Wilhelmi, the late floor reporter for both the Chicago Board of Trade and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. 

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