March coffee (KCH26) futures present a selling opportunity on more price weakness.

See on the daily bar chart for March coffee futures that prices are trending lower and today hit a seven-week low. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bearish posture as the blue MACD line has crossed below the red trigger line, and both lines are trending lower. The bears have the near-term technical advantage.

Fundamentally, coffee prices are on the decline due to rising global supplies this year after weather-related production declines in major producers, including Brazil. The removal of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports this week is also bearish for coffee futures, making for the likelihood of higher Brazilian coffee supplies flowing into the U.S. in the coming months.

A move in March coffee futures prices below chart support at this week’s low of $3.5165 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be $2.7500, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is located at $3.80.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 

Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. 

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