1-carat RAPI down 1.3% in January.

Diamond-price drops became more moderate in January, especially in the small goods that had seen sharp declines in recent months. Buyers remained cautious due to price uncertainty and the impact of tariffs and geopolitical tensions. The US-India trade deal in early February lifted sentiment.

The market continued to bifurcate, though the divisions were less pronounced than last year. US prices were stronger than those in India, and diamonds over 1.20 carats outperformed smaller ones.

The RapNet Diamond Index (RAPI™) — which tracks round, D to H, IF to VS2 diamonds — fell 1.3% in January for 0.30- and 1-carat goods after two months of sharper drops. The 0.50-carat RAPI decreased 1.2%. Prices for 3-carat diamonds slid 1.6%, a reversal after recent stability.

Round, 1-carat, D to H, SI diamonds saw prices fall 0.1% for the month following a 24.1% slump in 2025.

Post-holiday US retail was seasonally quiet. Jewelers showed demand for rounds and long fancies of 1.50 carats and larger. European orders for 5-carat-plus diamonds were good. India’s jewelry market dipped due to high gold prices. China remained weak.

De Beers reduced rough prices at its January sight, causing concern that lower-cost goods would flood the market. Last year, an influx of lower-value rough from Angola and Russia contributed to weakness in polished under 1 carat.

The industry’s other challenges remain. US tariffs are limiting access to the most important retail market, though President Donald Trump reached a deal with India on February 2 that will cut the country’s tariff rate from 50% to 18% and potentially exempt Indian diamonds from duties altogether. Meanwhile, the spike in gold and silver prices has reduced consumers’ spending power despite a sharp correction in early February.

Diamond demand is permanently lower because of synthetics, China’s slowdown, and social changes like dropping marriage rates. A sales recovery will take time. In the short term, the market’s ability to adapt by downsizing will determine whether prices improve.

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