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Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 formed Friday in the Atlantic and North Carolina is in the path.



Hurricane season 2024: Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 forms, could impact NC next week

<p>I'm w meteorologist K Campbell here with your tropical update. So we are tracking what will become tropical storm Debbie soon. Right now, the center of this system not very well defined, but it is over Cuba. And keep in mind, Cuba has a lot of mountainous terrain. It's definitely not going to develop over land, but as soon as it gets out over into the ocean waters tomorrow, it is likely to become a tropical storm. And that's why the National Hurricane Center gave it kind of this funky name, potential tropical cyclone number four. This gaming convention just allows them to issue tropical storm watches and warnings early for Florida, which they needed to do as it gets close to land. Top winds right now, 30 MPH, not too impressive yet. But we are looking at a tropical storm warning in blue for the west coast of Florida. Much of the west coast of Florida including the Keys under a tropical storm watch. So here's what Florida will see. 1 to 3 ft of storm surge, 4 to 8 inch rainfall totals on the west coast, isolated totals up to a foot and tropical storm force winds. But let's talk about the long term trajectory of this system because it's increasingly likely that it would come to North Carolina first making landfall in Florida, then likely crossing over the peninsula and emerging near the southeast coast. And the official forecast track right now has it close to North Carolina between Tuesday and Wednesday top winds 65 MPH. So a strong tropical storm, a big concern here though is don't just shy this off as a tropical storm, there is an increasing likelihood that it's down and that is a concern in terms of flooding risks. So the model plots, there are a couple outliers into the Gulf, but the vast majority bring it close to the North Carolina coast next week and move it very slowly along the North Carolina Coast. There are a couple outliers that keep it a little farther offshore. So we'll keep that in mind right now. It's most likely that we would be impacted here. The steering currents make this tricky. So you've got two areas of high pressure and an upper trough that's pretty far to the north here. So we, we need that to be a little farther south in order for it to pick this system up and move it quickly, but it's just trapped between these two high pressure systems that are going to be steering it in opposite directions. And that's the reason why we're concerned about this system slowing down. Now, we know that we do a better job with our track forecasting than intensity forecasting in terms of the tropical models. But I'll show you what they say most, keep it a tropical storm. In fact, 13 out of the 15 models do. We got two that have a hurricane, one of those two have a category two hurricane. Now, if this gets closer to the jet stream, the gulf stream, I should say that's when we have issues and it would be more likely to strengthen into a hurricane. So we could have a hurricane near the North Carolina coast next week. Don't let your guard down. The American model shows that solution with impact. Starting on Monday, the European model a little bit slower there and both slow down a little bit as it moves across the North Carolina coast or South Carolina Coast. We'll have a tropical update back here tonight.</p>

5 p.m. update: Tracking the tropics: Aug. 2, 2024 

2024 Atlantic hurricane season update

 11 p.m. update: Tracking the tropics: Aug. 2, 2024

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