Marvell Technology (MRVL) found itself at the center of Wall Street anxiety as a pair of high-profile reports ignited fears that the semiconductor company could be losing key custom chip orders from hyperscale customers Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). The headlines were enough to send Marvell’s stock sharply lower, wiping out billions in market value and reviving broader concerns about competition.

Management, however, has pushed back forcefully against that narrative. CEO Matt Murphy publicly dismissed the reports, stating that Marvell has not lost any business with Microsoft or Amazon and emphasizing that the company’s data center business remains “rock solid.” Several Wall Street analysts echoed that view.

With MRVL stock now caught between lingering skepticism and a still-compelling AI growth story, the key question is how investors should position themselves from here. Let’s find out!

About Marvell Technology Stock

With a market cap of $71.6 billion, Marvell Technology is a leading supplier of data-infrastructure semiconductor solutions. Marvell focuses on designing advanced system-on-a-chip architectures that integrate analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing capabilities. Its product lineup spans Ethernet solutions, including controllers, network adapters, physical transceivers, and switches, along with single- and multi-core processors and custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs). The company also provides interconnect solutions, Fibre Channel products, and storage controllers for both hard disk drives and solid-state drives.

Shares of the custom chip maker have slumped 24% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. MRVL stock has underperformed this year as investors continue to question the company’s competitive position in its custom AI chip business.

Marvell Stock Sinks Amid Two Competitive Headwinds

Marvell Technology shares came under heavy pressure last week, dropping more than 15% after two separate reports—one from The Information and another from Benchmark Equity Research—warned that the company could lose key orders from Microsoft and Amazon Web Services, respectively.

On Dec. 5, The Information reported that Microsoft is considering Broadcom (AVGO) as a possible chip design partner. The potential deal would focus on a custom AI accelerator optimized for large language models and data center inference, the report said. Any such deal would be a setback for Marvell, which currently co-designs Microsoft’s Maia line of ASICs that are custom-built for Azure.

On Dec. 8, Benchmark Equity Research downgraded Marvell stock to “Hold” from “Buy” and withdrew its price target, saying the company has lost a key piece of business with Amazon. “We now have a high degree of conviction that the company has lost both Amazon’s Trainium 3 and 4 designs to its Taiwanese competitor, Alchip,” wrote analyst Cody Acree. The downgrade came after his discussions with industry insiders in Silicon Valley. Notably, Amazon is Marvell’s largest customer for XPUs.

Marvell CEO and Several Wall Street Analysts Deny Reports of Lost Orders

Marvell Technology CEO Matt Murphy, in an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer last Tuesday, pushed back against reports suggesting the semiconductor company had lost business from the two hyperscalers. “I can tell you this, from Tuesday to Friday, nothing changed,” Murphy said, referring to the two reports that emerged days after the company’s latest earnings release. 

“We didn’t lose any business.”

Murphy also noted that Marvell maintains “deep, key relationships with all the major U.S. hyperscalers.” He emphasized that the company’s data center business is “rock solid.” Meanwhile, Murphy said there is a significant opportunity to invest in Marvell, noting that MRVL shares trade at a relatively lower multiple than the broader semiconductor index and that Marvell is “not an average company.”

Some Wall Street analysts also rushed to defend Marvell. Stifel called the reports “without merit” and “misleading,” while reaffirming a “Buy” rating and a $114 price target on MRVL stock. The firm’s analysts seemed to push back against The Information’s report, arguing that it would take three to four years to develop chips capable of replacing those Marvell makes for Microsoft. They added that such a move would be inconsistent with typical design cycles. They also argued that any major cancellation would likely trigger a regulatory disclosure from Marvell, which has not occurred. Seemingly in response to Benchmark’s research note, Stifel said that while Marvell may not have the same level of content in the next-generation chips as it did in Trainium 2, its guidance still looked solid.

J.P. Morgan analysts voiced even stronger confidence in Marvell. In a note published days before Benchmark’s downgrade, the bank said Marvell is already working on the Trainium 3 and Trainium 4 projects. “Block out the noise,” J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur told investors, adding that Marvell has not lost share at Microsoft or Amazon. He reiterated an “Overweight” rating and a $130 price target on MRVL stock.

Marvell Delivers Largely In-Line Results, Offers Bullish Outlook

On Dec. 2, Marvell Technology reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Its net revenue grew 36.8% year-over-year (YoY) to $2.08 billion, exceeding the midpoint of the company’s guidance and matching Wall Street estimates. Revenue from the data center segment, which accounts for 73% of total revenue, climbed 38% YoY to $1.52 billion. Notably, Marvell’s data center revenue mix consists of roughly 50% electro-optical, 25% AI ASIC, and 25% storage and switching. So, this is the segment that would be directly impacted by a potential loss of orders from Microsoft and Amazon.

Third-quarter growth was also supported by an ongoing cyclical recovery in the company’s Carrier Infrastructure and Enterprise Networking segments. Carrier infrastructure and enterprise networking revenue surged 98% and 57% YoY to $167.8 million and $237.2 million, respectively. As a result, Marvell reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.76, beating expectations by $0.02.

For the fourth quarter, management guided for revenue of about $2.2 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.79, in line with Wall Street’s consensus estimates.

Marvell’s in-line results and guidance seemed to disappoint investors, initially sending the stock down about 8% in extended trading. However, the stock later surged as much as 13% after CEO Murphy indicated on the post-earnings conference call that the company’s revenue could reach $10 billion in the next fiscal year (FY27). Murphy also offered a glimpse into FY28, projecting revenue growth of 40% YoY.

The company also unveiled plans to acquire startup Celestial AI for at least $3.25 billion, saying the deal would strengthen its AI push. Notably, Celestial AI offers a technology known as photonic fabric that links components across AI infrastructure. It uses light to move data more efficiently, enabling AI systems to operate faster.

What Do Analysts Expect for MRVL Stock?

Despite concerns about a potential loss of orders from Microsoft and Amazon, most Wall Street analysts remain bullish on MRVL stock, as reflected in its consensus “Strong Buy” rating. Among the 35 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it a “Strong Buy,” two assign a “Moderate Buy” rating, and nine recommend holding. The average price target for MRVL stock is $114.70, implying 37% upside potential from current levels.

Putting it all together, I believe a degree of caution is warranted at the moment. When it comes to The Information report, Marvell’s revenue should not be affected in the mid-term even if Microsoft were to switch to Broadcom, as it would take three to four years to develop the chips. Also, the move looks like natural multisourcing, suggesting Marvell and Microsoft will continue to work together, though Marvell would no longer benefit from being a sole-source supplier. Still, I’m a bit more concerned about Marvell’s business with Amazon, which is why I’m taking a more conservative stance and assigning a “Hold” rating.

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