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Tariffs and the Impact on Gold & Silver in 2025

President Trump’s first day back in office sent ripples through precious metals markets. At his inauguration, he doubled down on plans to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada — though no specific implementation timeline has been announced.

Gold surged to near $2,740 per ounce, reaching its highest mark since November, while silver prices moved above $30.

Precious metals prices can fluctuate significantly; for the most current pricing, check our daily spot prices.

What’s Really Driving Metal Prices Right Now

Something unusual is happening in precious metals markets. Traders are moving physical metal — actual bars and coins — from London’s vaults into U.S. facilities. Why? They’re getting ahead of possible tariffs that could make moving metal across borders more expensive or complicated.

TD Securities’ analyst Daniel Ghali points to a situation that’s never happened before in modern precious metals trading. The threat of universal tariffs has traders scrambling to shift their holdings, even before any official policy changes. According to Reuters, this rush of physical metal into U.S. vaults is creating what analysts call a “pre-tariff premium” in New York markets.

The silver market shows the most dramatic effects. London’s vaults, which have traditionally served as the world’s largest silver storage system, are seeing inventory levels drop faster than anyone expected. This matters because the silver market has already faced four straight years of supply deficits.

If enacted, these potential tariff policies could take effect as early as February, according to recent statements. However, the specific details, timing, and scope of any new trade policies remain under discussion.

Looking Back: December’s Warning Signs

December’s market moves actually gave us hints about what’s happening now. When China resumed its gold buying and prices hit $2,718 per ounce mid-month, we saw the first signs of this major shift in metal movement. Gold finished 2024 with a 28.7% gain — outperforming even the S&P 500.

Silver’s December volatility looks even more interesting now. That brief spike to $32.13 wasn’t just year-end trading. Looking back, it was the market’s first reaction to possible policy changes. The physical metal movements we’re seeing today started with those December price swings.

Why Silver Might See the Biggest Impact

Mexico leads the world in silver production, and that’s creating some interesting market dynamics. Bloomberg reports that silver futures briefly spiked 1.2% to $31.52 an ounce after Trump’s inauguration comments about Mexican tariffs. Traders aren’t just worried about future metal shipments — they’re concerned about what these tariffs might mean for mining operations.

This isn’t just about paper trading anymore. We’re seeing real changes in how physical metal moves around the world. The Economic Times notes that major banks have already set up special teams to handle what they’re calling “tariff-driven metal flows.”

How to Protect Your Portfolio in 2025

With all this movement in the precious metals markets, what steps make sense for investors? Here’s what market veterans suggest:

• Think about location: Where your metal is stored might matter more than ever before. Our guide to precious metals ownership explains why physical possession could become increasingly important.
• Watch the timing: Some analysts, including Julia Khandoshko at Mind Money, see gold potentially reaching between $2,700-$3,000 per ounce by mid-year. But getting there won’t be a straight line.
• Silver’s special case: With Mexico’s role in silver production and four years of supply deficits, silver might see even more dramatic moves than gold. TD Securities projects prices could touch $40 an ounce this year.

The Federal Reserve’s plans to cut rates will likely add more fuel to precious metals prices. As we’ve seen before, even cooling inflation doesn’t always mean lower metal prices.

The best moves often happen before big policy changes take effect. Call us to learn about your options for physical precious metals ownership while markets adjust to these new realities.