Fountain Forward’s latest Automotive Market Minute video is now live, offering dealers and market watchers an in‑depth look at the trends shaping the U.S. automotive industry as summer gives way to autumn. The September episode, entitled “2025 Automotive Industry Trends: Some Dealers Are Hitting Record Sales While Others Struggle,” features Fountain Forward founder Stephen Jurgella alongside market analysts Phil Trzebiatowski and James Sivco.
Record sales… but inventory headaches.
In August 2025, new and used vehicle sales “were on a heater,” with record profits at many dealerships. Nationally, new vehicle sales were up 5 % compared with 2024, and used retail sales up 4 %, making it one of the strongest Augusts in recent years. Yet the boom is uneven: some dealers report not selling a single new vehicle because of tight inventory and limited factory allocations. Supply remains constrained: day‑supply for new vehicles fell to 77.3 days (down 12 % from last year) and used‑vehicle supply dropped to 42.3 days (down 5.4 %).
Incentives remain high – but EV support is fading.
Factory incentives are near three‑year highs, fueling aggressive low‑APR offers and boosting new‑car demand. Manufacturers are currently providing about 75 % of the incentives seen in the “good old days”, yet federal EV credits are scheduled to disappear after September. Dealers are urged to act quickly while support is still strong.
Consumer sentiment is improving but chugging along.
Consumer confidence remains in the bottom decile historically but has improved for four straight months. July unit sales reached an annualized rate of 16.4 million, and Fountain Forward predicts 2025 will close with more than 16 million units. The labor market is resilient: while unemployment has inched above job openings, weekly jobless claims remain near multi‑decade lows. Inflation has squeezed lower‑income households, but most consumers remain employed and able to buy vehicles.
Interest rates and long‑term loan risks.
With the Fed expected to cut rates in September and December, Fountain Forward is watching how three, five, and seven‑year car‑loan rates respond. Seven‑year loans have ballooned from virtually zero to roughly 20 % of the market, and 72‑month terms account for about 35 %. Overall, 57 % of auto loans now extend beyond five years. Jurgella cautions that while long terms can make payments affordable, they increase negative equity risk and may not be a sound decision.
Action steps for dealers.
- Raise used‑car prices strategically. With limited used inventory and high interest rates, consumers are stretching loans; dealers should adjust pricing accordingly.
- Build and nurture lead lists. Selling season typically slows after September. Dealers should bolster summer leads, refine their media mix and prioritize follow‑up to keep showrooms busy.
- Stay disciplined with long‑term financing. Encourage buyers to avoid excessive negative equity; focus on customers who can comfortably afford new purchases and maintain profitability without mortgaging the future.
- Prepare for Q4 incentives and rate cuts. Anticipate continued factory support and potential interest‑rate declines, which could mitigate seasonal slowdowns.
Watch the full episode.
Fountain Forward’s Automotive Market Minute is a complimentary monthly video series that helps dealerships decode market data and turn insights into action. The latest episode is available on YouTube and at Fountain Forward’s Automotive Market Minute hub. Dealers can also learn about the firm’s Automotive Accelerator program designed to optimize media mix and drive sales.
For more information or to arrange interviews with the hosts, contact Fountain Forward at admin@fountainforward.com.
Media Contact
Name
Fountain Forward
Contact name
Stephen Jurgella
Contact phone
(844) 200-2797
Contact address
303 Tabor St
City
Houston
State
TX
Zip
77009
Country
United States
Url
https://fountainforward.com/
