Waste Connections’ third quarter results drew a positive market response, driven by robust organic growth and strategic execution despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds. Management credited strong pricing performance, disciplined contract management, and improvements in employee retention and safety for contributing to underlying margin expansion. CEO Ronald Mittelstaedt highlighted, “We delivered margins of 33.8%, up 100 basis points year-over-year, excluding commodity impacts and the Chiquita Canyon landfill closure,” emphasizing progress on operational initiatives and the benefits of technology-driven pricing tools.
Is now the time to buy WCN? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Waste Connections (WCN) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $2.46 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.45 billion (5.1% year-on-year growth, in line)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.44 vs analyst estimates of $1.38 (4.3% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $830.3 million vs analyst estimates of $824.9 million (33.8% margin, 0.7% beat)
- Operating Margin: 17.9%, down from 20.3% in the same quarter last year
- Organic Revenue rose 6.3% year on year vs analyst estimates of 1.9% growth (444 basis point beat)
- Market Capitalization: $89.59 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Waste Connections’s Q3 Earnings Call
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Patrick Brown (Raymond James) pressed for details on the timing and impact of renewable natural gas projects. CEO Ronald Mittelstaedt clarified that material revenue contributions are not expected until 2027, with most projects coming online late in 2026.
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Noah Kaye (Oppenheimer & Company) asked about the incremental benefit from AI-driven pricing tools. CFO Mary Whitney said the tools contributed to improved pricing retention in 2025 and will be further deployed, supporting a 150 to 200 basis point price-cost spread goal.
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Konark Gupta (Scotiabank) inquired about Chiquita landfill remediation costs. Mittelstaedt reported that mitigation is proceeding as planned, with outlays running ahead this year due to accelerated treatment, but no change in the total cost outlook.
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Chris Murray (ATB Capital Markets) questioned how Waste Connections will achieve mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026. Whitney explained the mix of price, stabilizing volumes, and acquisition carryover, with margin improvement driven by labor cost control.
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Tobey Sommer (Truist) sought clarity on commodity exposure and future business mix. Whitney and Mittelstaedt responded that price-led growth will gradually reduce commodity-linked revenue as a percentage of total sales.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking ahead, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the pace and effectiveness of technology and AI adoption in pricing and operations, (2) progress on acquisition integration and the impact on market share and margins, and (3) stabilization of commodity-related revenue and ongoing improvements in employee retention and safety. Execution on landfill remediation and renewable energy investments will also be key indicators for long-term value creation.
Waste Connections currently trades at $174.78, in line with $173.71 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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