What Happened?
Shares of digital small business lender Live Oak Bancshares (NYSE: LOB) fell 3% in the afternoon session after the major indices continued to retreat (Nasdaq -1.5%, S&P 500 -1.2%) amid profit-taking and renewed concerns about tariffs. Investors reacted to a federal court ruling that most of President Trump's global tariffs were illegal, raising uncertainty over trade policy and the fiscal impact of potential refunds. Rising Treasury yields added to the pressure, with the 10-year climbing above 4.2% and the 30-year nearing 5%, intensifying worries about stretched equity valuations. September's historically weak track record for stocks further dampened sentiment, leaving traders cautious ahead of the jobs report later in the week and the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Live Oak Bancshares’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 14 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 11 days ago when the stock gained 7.1% on the news that the major indices rebounded, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered dovish remarks at the much-awaited Jackson Hole symposium. Powell suggested that with inflation risks moderating and unemployment remaining low, the Federal Reserve might consider a shift in its monetary policy stance, including potential interest rate cuts. This outlook eased market concerns about prolonged high interest rates and their impact on economic growth. The prospect of lower borrowing costs bolstered investor confidence, particularly in sectors that have lagged, leading to a broad rally across the market.
Live Oak Bancshares is down 2.5% since the beginning of the year, and at $37.59 per share, it is trading 25.1% below its 52-week high of $50.22 from October 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Live Oak Bancshares’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,600.
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