A decade of data shows Africa's risk remains stable while new winners have emerged

JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA / ACCESS Newswire / September 16, 2025 / Control Risks (www.ControlRisks.com) today released the 10th edition of the Africa Risk-Reward Index (ARRI), offering North American companies a decade-long view of operating conditions across 24 African markets. The 2025 ARRI finds that overall risk has remained broadly stable since 2017, while reward levels, after a brief pandemic dip, have largely recovered.

The key takeaway for US and Canadian boardrooms is that Africa remains a viable diversification strategy, with specific nations emerging as key economic hubs poised to yield promising returns.

"In a world of tariffs and supply-chain rewiring, Africa is an attractive diversification target, if you choose reform-driven markets and build for regional scale," said Barnaby Fletcher, Principal, Control Risks North America.

ARRI highlights several regional developments underscoring the need for nation-specific strategy. These include:

• Divergence defining opportunity. Reformers like Angola, Côte d'Ivoire, Zambia and Morocco are pulling ahead. Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt remain high-potential but need progress on FX, infrastructure and regulatory clarity

• High-risk can be bankable. The DRC is central to energy-transition supply chains; Zimbabwe has stabilised its currency but remains complex; Ethiopia offers scale even with persistent conflict-related risks

• Numbers tell the narrative. Despite persistent negative headlines, FDI to Africa rose 12% in 2024. By July 2025, no African sovereign bond was trading in distressed territory, a first in over a decade

• Policy volatility is real, but navigable: AGOA suspensions and tariff swings highlight the need for multi-market access and contracts that price in volatility

• New long-term partners emerge. Gulf, Indian, Turkish and Japanese investors are securing long-tenor concessions. Local partnerships offer political cover and operating know-how.

• Innovative funding alternatives are available. Sovereign financing is shifting toward Panda, Samurai bonds and domestic markets. Corporates benefit from local-currency cash flows and DFI risk-sharing.

These regional developments are reshaping how organisations scale and de-risk their Africa footprint. Reform-led markets offer early-mover advantages while anchor economies require conditional investment tied to FX and infrastructure progress.

"The data helps separate durable reform stories from headlines," added Fletcher "The next wave of investment will follow logistics corridors, local processing and regional demand."

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Control Risks Group Holdings Ltd.

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Marketing contacts:
Agnes Jumah
EMEA Marketing Lead
Control Risks
Agnes.Jumah@controlrisks.com

Kayley Betchoo
Senior Marketing Executive: Africa
Control Risks
Kayley.Betchoo@controlrisks.com

Media spokespeople:
Barnaby Fletcher
Principal
Geopolitical Risk
North America
Barnaby.Fletcher@controlrisks.com

About The Africa Risk-Reward Index:
ARRI tracks 24 African countries using 11 political, security and economic indicators to produce annual risk and reward scores with ten-year trendlines. Developed by Control Risks and Oxford Economics Africa, the Index offers a comparative snapshot of market opportunities and risks across the continent.

About Control Risks:
Control Risks is a global security and strategic intelligence firm. Across the physical and digital worlds, we deliver comprehensive security advice and solutions along with strategic intelligence that enable clients to make risk-based decisions and realise opportunities around the world.

About Oxford Economics Africa:
Oxford Economics Africa's coverage provides comprehensive analysis of immediate and long-term economic prospects in addition to forecasts and commentary by country, sector and city that will benefit organisations monitoring risks or opportunities for their operations or investments in the continent. With headquarters in South Africa Oxford Economics Africa has a strong reputation for local knowledge, independence and quality. The firm employs a highly qualified team of economists, econometricians, quantitative analysts, political analysts and editors.

SOURCE: Control Risks Group Holdings Ltd.