Survey Shows Trump is More Favorable Among Spanish-Speaking Voters Compared to English-Speaking Hispanic Voters

Harris’s Favorability with Hispanics is at 55%, Trailing Biden’s Hispanic Voter Share in 2020 Election

TelevisaUnivision Consumer Strategy & Insights, in collaboration with Opiniones Latinas, recently conducted a unique survey of Hispanic likely voters in the key seven battleground states that will decide the Presidential Election (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin). Thirty percent (30%) of voters conducted the interview in Spanish. Among the sample, 42% speak Spanish at home. The majority, 62%, reside in immigrant households with themselves, their parents or grandparents, or someone in the household being an immigrant.

Survey results show Spanish-Speaking (Spanish-Dominant/Bilingual) likely voters differ in many aspects from English-Speaking voters. Survey insights include:

• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump (43% vs 39%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are just as likely as English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris (57% vs 58%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to be immediate Trump voters (40% vs 38%) and are less likely than English-Speaking voters to be Harris voters (52% vs 57%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to be undecided or voting for another candidate (8% vs 5%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely to say the country is headed down the wrong track (62% vs 61%) and fewer say it is headed in the right direction (28% vs 33%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters say the leading issues that would determine their vote for President are economy/jobs (29% vs 24%) immigration/border (13% vs 13%), abortion/women’s rights (7% vs 15%), protecting democracy (7% vs 11%) and inflation (10% vs 9%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are far more likely to be Pro-Life than English-Speaking voters (42% vs 31%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely to vote in person on election day than English-Speaking voters (41% vs 37%), but the majority will vote early (55% vs 60%).

State-by-state survey data is available as follows:

ARIZONA:

• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump (51% vs 41%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are less likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris (52% vs 59%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to be immediate Trump voters (49% vs 39%) and are less likely to be immediate Harris voters (47% vs 57%). Spanish-Speaking voters are just as likely as English-Speaking voters to be undecided or voting for another candidate (5% vs 5%).

GEORGIA:

• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump (43% vs 35%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are just as likely as English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris (57% vs 58%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to be immediate Trump voters (41% vs 37%), and less likely to be immediate Harris voters (53% vs 58%). Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely to be undecided or voting for another candidate (7% vs 5%).

NEVADA:

• Spanish-Speaking voters are less likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump (36% vs 46%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are slightly more likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris (61% vs 59%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are less likely than English-Speaking voters to be immediate Trump voters (36% vs 42%), and less likely to be immediate Harris voters (50% vs 52%). Spanish-Speaking voters are far more likely than English-Speaking voters to be undecided or voting for another candidate (14% vs 6%).

NORTH CAROLINA:

• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump (48% vs 39%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are less likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris (52% vs 55%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to be immediate Trump voters (47% vs 39%), and less likely to be immediate Harris voters (48% vs 55%). Spanish-Speaking voters are just as likely as English-Speaking voters to be undecided or voting for another candidate (5% vs 6%).

MICHIGAN:

• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump (43% vs 37%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris (60% vs 56%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are less likely than English-Speaking voters to be immediate Trump voters (34% vs 36%) and are also less likely to be immediate Harris voters (53% vs 57%). Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to be undecided or voting for another candidate (13% vs 8%).

PENNSYLVANIA:

• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump (36% vs 33%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are slightly more likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris (63% vs 61%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are less likely than English-Speaking voters to be immediate Trump voters (30% vs 33%) or immediate Harris voters (60% vs 63%). Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely to be undecided or voting for another candidate (10% vs 4%).

WISCONSIN:

• Spanish-Speaking voters are less likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump (36% vs 42%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are more likely than English-Speaking voters to have a favorable opinion of Kamala Harris (64% vs 52%).
• Spanish-Speaking voters are less likely than English-Speaking voters to be immediate Trump voters (34% vs 41%) and are more likely to be immediate Harris voters (60% vs 52%). Spanish-Speaking voters are slightly less likely than English-Speaking voters to be undecided or voting for another candidate (6% vs 8%).

Methodology:

Opiniones Latinas conducted individual statewide surveys among likely November 2024 general election Hispanic voters in seven battleground states across the country from September 17 – 22, 2024, with sample sizes ranging between 300 and 400 interviews per state.

A multi-modal approach was employed via live telephone calls and self-administered text messages in both English and Spanish. The live telephone interviews were conducted by professional bilingual interviewers with respondents contacted by both landline phone and cell phone. The text message respondents were sent a personalized invitation to complete the survey on a secure online platform. Interview selection was random, and interviews were stratified by area, race/ethnicity, age, gender, and vote history to correlate with actual voter turnout from previous general elections.

The individual statewide surveys were then combined and weighted together to reflect the actual Hispanic turnout in the 2020 Presidential Exit Polls. The cumulative summary of the combined data totals 2,200 interviews and has an accuracy of +/-2.1%. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations. Totals may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding and refusals.

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About TelevisaUnivision

TelevisaUnivision is the world’s leading Spanish-language media company. Powered by the largest library of owned Spanish-language content and a prolific production capability, TelevisaUnivision is the top producer of original content in Spanish across news, sports, and entertainment verticals. This original content powers all of TelevisaUnivision’s platforms, which include market-leading broadcast networks Univision, Las Estrellas, Canal 5, and UniMás, and a portfolio of 38 cable networks, which include TUDN, Galavisión, Distrito Comedia, and TL Novelas. The company also operates the leading Mexican movie studio, Videocine, and owns and operates the largest Spanish-language audio platform in the U.S. across 35 terrestrial stations and the Uforia digital platform. TelevisaUnivision is also the owner of ViX, the largest Spanish-language streaming platform in the world. For more information, please visit televisaunivision.com.

TelevisaUnivision Consumer Strategy & Insights is dedicated to developing comprehensive research and insights for commercial purposes. Our primary objective is to provide political advertising stakeholders with a deeper understanding of the Hispanic electorate in the markets we serve. It is important to note that our work is separate from and does not represent the work of TelevisaUnivision News. Our focus remains solely on delivering valuable data and analysis to inform and guide political media strategies and decisions.

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