J.P. Morgan Survey: Middle Market Business Leaders Demonstrate Resilience Despite Drop in Optimism for the U.S. Economy

Middle market business leaders remain resilient despite economic uncertainty, according to J.P. Morgan’s 2025 Business Leaders Outlook Pulse Survey released today. Compared with the start of the year, optimism for the national economy fell by more than half, dropping from 65% as reported in January, to 32% in June. In line with these findings, there was an increase in recession expectations among business leaders: 25% of respondents expect a recession in 2025, up from 8%.

There are a number of external factors impacting business plans, with 44% of leaders reporting they delayed their plans to some extent. Among those reporting changes to their plans, top factors include:

• Policy uncertainty (74%)
• Market volatility (37%)
• Shifts in customer demand (37%)
• Geopolitical events (35%)

Overall, the top three challenges facing companies are uncertain economic conditions (55%), tariffs (41%) and revenue and sales growth (41%).

Despite the decline in economic optimism, confidence in individual business performance remains strong. Business leaders are resolute in their strategic planning, with many not altering their strategies despite external challenges. Forty percent of leaders report that they are not making any changes to their plans, and 14% have accelerated plans. The majority (85%) of respondents are projecting steady to increased company performance through the end of the year. Additional performance expectations include:

• 78% expect revenue and sales to increase or remain the same
• 73% expect profits to increase or remain the same
• 37% plan to increase headcount, while 45% plan to keep headcount the same

“Businesses are operating with caution in the current environment,” said Matt Sable, Co-Head of J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking. “Leaders are recalibrating where necessary to ensure they can continue to deliver for their clients and communities, highlighting their resilience and determination.”

Visit jpmorgan.com for more information on the 2025 Business Leaders Outlook Pulse Survey.

Survey Methodology

J.P. Morgan’s Business Leaders Outlook Pulse Survey was conducted online from June 4-18, 2025 for middle market businesses (annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million). In total, 718 U.S. business owners and leaders across various industries participated in the survey. The results of this online survey are within statistical parameters for validity, and the error rate is plus or minus 3.7% and a 95% confidence level.

About JPMorganChase

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is a leading financial services firm based in the United States of America (“U.S.”), with operations worldwide. JPMorganChase had $4.4 trillion in assets and $351 billion in stockholders’ equity as of March 31, 2025. The Firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing and asset management. Under the J.P. Morgan and Chase brands, the Firm serves millions of customers in the U.S., and many of the world’s most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients globally. Information about JPMorgan Chase & Co. is available at www.jpmorganchase.com.

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