ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

Safeguard your portfolio with these three bargain stocks

illustration of green arrow in shopping cart under blue sky

Welcome to the jungle. Today's stock market is not the one you inherited from your parents or even your grandparents. In prior generations, information took a bit longer to spread across sectors and investors. It took time for everyone to make the same sensible buy or sell decision. 

Today, information moves at the speed of light, and many voices compete for your attention. Some saying 'buy buy buy,' while others saying just the opposite. So how can you invest in a situation like this? Well, how does reverting to a strategy that never fails sound? It's kind of like the one Warren Buffett likes to live by.

In the craziness of potential overvaluation in the S&P 500, you must cover your downside with cheap stocks, not those that are "cheap for a reason." Stocks like Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and Vale (NYSE: VALE) are cheap stocks that show signs of being truly undervalued. 

The casinos are closed 

Wall Street traders may seem courageous in the face of wild financial markets. However, their outsized bonuses and commissions allow them to operate with higher everyday risk. On the other hand, retail investors would be better served by paying their cards a bit closer to the vest. 

Now that the VIX is below 15% again, momentum has become a phenomenon. So you must look for businesses that produce high-quality, reliable cash flows selling at unjustifiable discounts today.

That is where the warning label 'It must be cheap for a reason' can be ripped off regarding this short list of businesses. But first, you must understand why they were chosen from the stock screener

Taking the world of medical stocks for Pfizer, financial firms for Morgan Stanley, and mining stocks for Vale, you'll see why they are clear outliers. Starting with price action, you should primarily look for stocks that are 'cheap' in relation to their 52-week high prices.

Starting with large-cap pharma stocks, the industry trades at an average of 84% off its 52-week high prices. In comparison, Pfizer is the worst performer at 55%, deep into a bear market. However, markets have reason to believe that this discount is nothing short of insane.

Hopping over to the financial sector, these stocks trade at an average of 86.4% of their 52-week highs; Morgan Stanley stock, however, comes in at 79% officially in a bear market despite recent upticks. Don't worry; it's still precisely what you're looking for.

Lastly, Vale is not quite a mining lagger, as it is hovering near 81.0% of its 52-week high relative to the industry's 79.3% average. However, the following factors may surprise you just as much as analysts.

The X factor 

How can you be ultimately confident in assuming that these names are not cheap for a good reason? Well, it all comes down to their earnings expectations and price targets. If you're looking for double-digit upside, you came to the right place.

While pharma stocks expect to grow their EPS by an average rate of 14.2% in the next twelve months, Pfizer analysts have blown this statistic out of the water by assigning a massive 100.6% expected jump. This belief is backed up by their $42.5 price target, implying a 41.8% upside from today's prices.

Is this the case for the other two? Not quite, but they're close enough. Morgan Stanley is trading at a P/E of 14.3x, which is awfully close to the industry average of 16.4x; their EPS projections also reflect a close call at 18.3% relative to the 21.3% average.

What is essential to keep in mind for Morgan Stanley is that, despite drivers like P/E and earnings growth being right in line with the industry, its stock price is still trading at a significant discount to its peers relative to 52-week high prices, a discrepancy you can take advantage of today.

What is there to hope for with Vale, Brazil's most significant player in iron ore mining and exportation? For starters, China is its biggest customer. China is investing heavily in infrastructure, which - you guessed it - needs iron ore to complete projects.

This could be why the stock is trading at a more bullish momentum to the industry average while still carrying the weight of its expected EPS growth for the most part. Analysts are shooting for the stars here, with a 20.4% EPS advance projection, while the rest of the industry is projecting a mere 13.1%.

While Vale carries the growth crown, its stock is severely discounted to the peer group on a P/E basis. Its 6.3x multiple will fall around 64.8% below the industry's 17.9x average P/E valuation.

Stories of unrecognized growth, with price action pointing to gaps to be exploited, take your pick and protect your downside, as these cannot go much lower from here.

Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.