ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

These Stocks Are Using Buybacks to Unlock Big Gains for Investors

Stock Buyback text on sticky notes with office desk. Stock Market Exchange Concept

Over each quarterly announcement coming from companies, investors tend to focus a lot on the net earnings per share (EPS) figure and not a lot on metrics that matter – arguably – just as much. Today, investors have an additional insight into a select few companies that show aggressive new share buyback programs approved by management teams in recent months.

There are two ways that investors typically get a return from investing in stocks: one is capital gains from buying low and selling high, and the other is the dividend income side of the business. But, there’s a third way to generate upside in a stock investment that is more attractive for investors and tax efficient. This third way is through stock buyback programs.

But, before investors determine the benefits of buybacks, a list of these aggressive programs should be kept in mind. Starting with the energy sector, management teams at Marathon Petroleum Co. (NYSE: MPC) are taking advantage of low oil prices while they last. Then there’s Bank of America Co. (NYSE: BAC) to squeeze the upside in bond holdings from the financial sector. Finally, consumer staples and their attractiveness are seen in Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO).

Why Stock Buybacks Are Better Than Dividends for Investors

Let's say there are 10 shares of a company, and an investor owns one. That person has a 10% ownership in the business. Now, management has bought back two shares of the business, and only eight shares are outstanding. That same investor (holding one share) has increased to an ownership rate of 12.5% from the previous 10% without doing any work.

That higher ownership rate is more valuable on a per-share basis (since supply contracted), and that’s how some companies manage to compound the value of their companies without much effort. More than that, there’s a better tax treatment.

Dividends are taxable income for investors, and they are paid with capital already taxed in the business. Stock buybacks don’t carry this double-taxation characteristic that dividends do, further boosting the upside effects and a clear advantage over dividend income.

Marathon Petroleum's Clear Path to Upside

Now that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has cut interest rates by the most aggressive rate since the financial crisis of 2008, the business cycle is facing a new potential spark higher, which almost always carries higher oil demand. Knowing this, Warren Buffett bought up to 29% of Occidental Petroleum Co. (NYSE: OXY) before oil broke out.

Buffett is not alone in his bullish view of oil stocks, as Marathon’s management decided to approve a stock buyback program of up to $5 billion this quarter, representing roughly 8.8% of the company’s market capitalization for an aggressive buyback.

Buybacks also mean insiders think the stock is relatively cheap enough to buy at current levels. Wall Street analysts would agree with this fact. The consensus price target for Marathon Petroleum stock today is set at $196.1 a share, which calls for up to 13.2% upside from today’s stock price.

Higher Bond Prices Could Propel Bank of America Stock to New Heights

Management knows that, which is why they approved up to $25 billion in capital to be used for stock buybacks, which also represents approximately 8% of the bank’s market capitalization today. Here’s why that decision might have been made.

As interest rates come down, bond prices increase, and Bank of America’s financials show the bank is holding up to $368.1 billion in treasury bonds. Knowing that these bonds could significantly go up in value, therefore boosting the bank’s valuation, analysts at Oppenheimer decided to boost the stock’s price target up to $49 a share for a 22.8% upside from today’s price. Management seems to be on the same page when it comes to the potential run this stock can have in the coming months.

New Price Target Boosts for Altria Stock

Apart from management at Altria approving a stock buyback program of up to $1 billion, others on Wall Street also decided to make their bullish view for the company public. Analysts at Bank of America have now landed on a $57 a share price target for Altria Group stock, calling for as much as 14.2% upside from where it trades today.

More than that, institutional buyers like Legal & General Group boosted their net holdings in Altria stock by 1.6% as of August 2024. This may not seem like much on a percentage basis. Still, it now nets their investment at up to $562.8 million for nearly 1% ownership in the company.

The picture wouldn’t be complete without investors knowing how Altria stock is valued compared to the rest of the staples sector. Trading at a P/E ratio of 10.5x today, the stock is at a 50% discount to the staples sector’s average valuation of 20.5x today. This is what management saw as justification for the buybacks and what investors should consider as well.

Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.