ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

Airbnb stock bulls just went all in before earnings

photo of Airbnb logo under a magnifying glass

Earnings season has kicked off, and markets are more tuned into the potential money shifts coming to the economy in this new cycle. One of the most eagerly awaited shifts is the proposed interest rate cuts coming from the FED this year. With that in mind, it Is more important than ever to make sure your portfolio is not exposed to anything that could severely impact your performance.

While some investors may start hunting for bargain stocks in the coming months, you should be looking for momentum and market favoritism. When it comes to real estate stocks, you have two routes: the operations/services area, or the more traditional homebuilder stocks or even REITs (real estate investment trusts). Today, there are reasons to believe the returns could be found in the former.

More on why that's the case in just a minute. For now, all you should worry about is that investors have taken the bull by the horns when it comes to Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) stock. They are doing this in a predictive attempt to make sure they are positioned in this stock before any potential rally once the business announces its earnings release this month. However, in so doing, traders and investors were careless in leaving a lot of evidence for the rest of the market to follow.

Here's a rundown

Airbnb stock is now flirting with its 52-week high prices and has outperformed the broader S&P 500 index by as much as 12.8% during the past twelve months. This gives the stock the type of momentum you should be looking for in this pivoting economy and confirms that bulls have taken over the stock.

When compared against other real estate operation stocks, like Zillow Group (NASDAQ: Z) and even the CBRE Group (NYSE: CBRE), no one comes close to Airbnb in its business model, brand penetration, and especially in its size. At $96.9 billion in market capitalization, markets convey the message that "Size does matter" because it reflects not only current quality but future growth.

While both Zillow and CBRE also trade above 90% of their 52-week high prices, one factor is creating a massive mispricing opportunity for investors like you to take advantage of today. You see, analysts may be asleep at the wheel in assigning the proper earnings per share growth rates to these names.

Zillow stock analysts expect an impressive 55.1% jump in EPS for the next twelve months, which is more than twice the average rate of 20.1% expected for the rest of the industry. These same analysts, however, think the stock is fairly valued in their $55.5 price target, offering a mere 1.0% upside from today's price.

For CBRE, the story rhymes a bit. With a projected growth of 21.4% in EPS for 2024, analysts believe that this company will perform in line with the industry average yet still assign a 6.6% upside in their $92.3 a share price target. Here's where Airbnb becomes interesting.

At a 4.3% downside from today, in their $141.3 share price target, analysts aren't too excited about the prospect of 8.6% EPS growth this year. You should always take analyst consensus with a grain of salt because they are directly fighting the market as it stands today.

You see, Airbnb not only outperformed the S&P 500 but also the broader Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA: VNQ) by more than 40.0% in the past twelve months. Despite what analysts say, here is what markets think about this stellar performer.

Difference maker

The market has not only driven the size (market capitalization) of Airbnb to be head and shoulders above the industry, but they are also leaving a major sign of future optimism in their operation.

While the rest of the peers trade at a price-to-book ratio of 3.7x on average, investors – and traders alike – are perfectly fine with overpaying for the stock they think will come out as a winner.

At a valuation of 10.6x P/B, Airbnb stock commands a premium of 185.0% to its peers. CBRE is discounted by 16.0% to the industry average with its 3.1x P/B ratio, and Zillow falls even further with a 3.0x P/B, representing a discount to the industry of up to 21.0%.

Remember the saying, "It must be cheap for a reason?" Well, Airbnb must also be expensive for a reason; here are a few of them. According to their last quarterly earnings results, Airbnb grew its revenue by 18.0% over the year, with net income jumping by 266.0% during the same period.

It wasn't long ago that Airbnb struggled to make net profits, much less free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures). Today, free cash flow is reported at $4.2 billion as of the past twelve months, with a 44.0% margin. This impressive feat is a testament to the company's operating efficiency and growing business level.

Do yourself a favor, add this stock to your watchlist and keep a close eye on it; it could really shock you this week.

Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.