Oklo’s (NYSE: OKLO) stock price is melting down and may head even lower before the bottom is found, opening up the buying opportunity savvy investors have been waiting for. Up more than 110% at its peak in early 2025, the stock price is now back at reasonable levels where serious growth investors can find value. The headwind for the market today is the slow pace of progress and timeline until revenue and profits are made; the opportunity for energy investors is the growing pipeline of deals and long-term outlook for sustainable revenue and profits.
Oklo Pushes Back Timeline for Its Flagship Operation
Oklo’s Q4 and 2024 had many positive highlights, but the market chose to focus on the timeline for the initial operation of its flagship reactor project. Once believed to be functional by the end of 2027, it may not come online until early 2028 or possibly later. However, the company is working hard with the Department of Energy to ensure a speedy process and may alter its guidance in the coming quarters.
Highlights that point to the company’s long-term success include four new pipeline deals that boosted the backlog value to an industry record. The critical deal is with Switch, a leading data center provider operating five Tier 5 exascale data centers in the United States.
The deal is worth 12 gigawatts of power-generating capacity, among the largest of its kind in the green energy arena. The deal will be worth billions in future revenue and is expected to play out over decades as the AI age matures. Other deals include power-generating capability for smaller data center operators and industries.
Another critical highlight is the company’s decision to expand the scalability of Aurora powerhouses to 75 megawatts from the previously targeted 50 megawatts. This is in response to data center demand and potentially related to Switch’s involvement.
Oklo Forecasts Cash Burn to Increase: The Balance Sheet Is Well-Capitalized
Oklo’s losses are growing and are forecasted to increase in 2025 due to staffing and growth-related efforts. However, the balance sheet is well-capitalized and can sustain operations for several years at the forecasted 2025 cash-use rate. The question is whether the company’s flagship reactors will begin generating revenue soon enough to preclude the need for additional funding, but it may not matter.
Acquiring Atomic Alchemy could lead to revenue a year or more ahead of reactor operations. Atomic Alchemy uses specialized reactors to create radioactive isotopes for various industry applications, including healthcare, research, and defense.
Dilution was a headwind for the stock price in early 2025 but is no longer an immediate threat. The share count rose by nearly 50% for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, but is unlikely to increase again soon, and institutional activity absorbed the shares. Institutional buying spiked in Q1 2025, more than doubling the sell volume, to net over $280 million in shares, worth about 7.5% of the market cap, leading into the year-end release.
Analysts Are Bullish on Oklo's Stock Price
[content-module:Forecast|NYSE: OKLO]The analysts are bullish on Oklo’s stock price, although the year-end results failed to inspire any activity.
The takeaway is that the bullish trends remain intact, including increasing coverage, a Moderate Buy consensus rating, and significant upside potential.
The consensus estimate is near $44.50 in late March, sufficient for a 45% upside from critical support levels. Those levels are near $25 and may be reached before the end of Q2 2025.
The technical action in OKLO stock is lackluster. The market is trending lower and will likely hit fresh lows before rebounding.
The critical support level of $25 may be broken. In this scenario, OKLO’s stock price could move as low as $20 or lower.
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