ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

3 Reasons to Avoid DOCU and 1 Stock to Buy Instead

DOCU Cover Image

What a time it’s been for DocuSign. In the past six months alone, the company’s stock price has increased by a massive 60.5%, reaching $89.52 per share. This was partly due to its solid quarterly results, and the run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.

Is now the time to buy DocuSign, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free.

Despite the momentum, we don't have much confidence in DocuSign. Here are three reasons why there are better opportunities than DOCU and a stock we'd rather own.

Why Is DocuSign Not Exciting?

Founded by Seattle-based entrepreneur Tom Gonser, DocuSign (NASDAQ: DOCU) is the pioneer of e-signature and offers software as a service that allows people and organisations to sign legally binding documents electronically.

1. Weak Billings Point to Soft Demand

Billings is a non-GAAP metric that is often called “cash revenue” because it shows how much money the company has collected from customers in a certain period. This is different from revenue, which must be recognized in pieces over the length of a contract.

DocuSign’s billings came in at $752.3 million in Q3, and over the last four quarters, its year-on-year growth averaged 7.1%. This performance was underwhelming and suggests that increasing competition is causing challenges in acquiring/retaining customers. DocuSign Billings

2. Customer Churn Hurts Long-Term Outlook

One of the best parts about the software-as-a-service business model (and a reason why they trade at high valuation multiples) is that customers typically spend more on a company’s products and services over time.

DocuSign’s net revenue retention rate, a key performance metric measuring how much money existing customers from a year ago are spending today, was 99% in Q3. This means DocuSign’s revenue would’ve decreased by 1% over the last 12 months if it didn’t win any new customers.

DocuSign Net Revenue Retention Rate

DocuSign has a weak net retention rate, signaling that some customers aren’t satisfied with its products, leading to lost contracts and revenue streams.

3. Long Payback Periods Delay Returns

The customer acquisition cost (CAC) payback period represents the months required to recover the cost of acquiring a new customer. Essentially, it’s the break-even point for sales and marketing investments. A shorter CAC payback period is ideal, as it implies better returns on investment and business scalability.

DocuSign’s recent customer acquisition efforts haven’t yielded returns as its CAC payback period was negative this quarter, meaning its sales and marketing investments outpaced its revenue. The company’s inefficiency indicates it operates in a highly competitive environment where there is little differentiation between DocuSign’s products and its peers.

Final Judgment

DocuSign isn’t a terrible business, but it doesn’t pass our quality test. Following the recent rally, the stock trades at 6.2× forward price-to-sales (or $89.52 per share). Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but our analysis shows the upside isn’t great compared to the potential downside. We're fairly confident there are better investments elsewhere. We’d recommend looking at the most entrenched endpoint security platform on the market.

Stocks We Would Buy Instead of DocuSign

The elections are now behind us. With rates dropping and inflation cooling, many analysts expect a breakout market - and we’re zeroing in on the stocks that could benefit immensely.

Take advantage of the rebound by checking out our Top 9 Market-Beating Stocks. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 175% over the last five years.

Stocks that made our list in 2019 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+2,183% between December 2019 and December 2024) as well as under-the-radar businesses like Sterling Infrastructure (+1,096% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free.

Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.