Taylor Morrison Home’s third quarter proved challenging, as the market responded negatively to the company’s results despite exceeding Wall Street’s revenue and non-GAAP profit expectations. Management cited persistent affordability concerns and macroeconomic uncertainty as continued headwinds, leading to a pronounced drop in backlog and a decline in operating margin. CEO Sheryl Palmer emphasized the company’s strategy of tailoring pricing and incentives by community and consumer segment, while maintaining a focus on operational efficiency and cost management to help offset the effects of softening demand.
Is now the time to buy TMHC? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $2.10 billion vs analyst estimates of $2.03 billion (1.2% year-on-year decline, 3.4% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: $2.11 vs analyst estimates of $1.92 (9.8% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $307.6 million vs analyst estimates of $279 million (14.7% margin, 10.2% beat)
- Operating Margin: 14.2%, down from 15.7% in the same quarter last year
- Backlog: $2.34 billion at quarter end, down 39% year on year
- Market Capitalization: $5.85 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Taylor Morrison Home’s Q3 Earnings Call
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Trevor Scott Allinson (Wolfe Research) pressed CEO Sheryl Palmer on direct conversations with the administration about housing affordability. Palmer confirmed ongoing talks but emphasized, “It’s early days,” and reiterated a community-specific approach to balancing volume and price.
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Michael Glaser Dahl (RBC) questioned the sustainability of revenue with backlog down sharply. Palmer described a multi-pronged approach, including higher spec inventory, faster cycle times, and readiness to ramp starts if demand improves, but avoided firm volume commitments.
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Matthew Adrien Bouley (Barclays) asked about the potential for Esplanade’s mix to increase amid new community openings. Palmer indicated three Esplanade communities will open next year, with further details expected in the next update.
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Alan S. Ratner (Zelman & Associates) sought clarity on land cost renegotiation and its impact on margins. COO Erik Heuser stated that while 8% price reductions were achieved on some deals, the benefit will take time to materialize and is not expected to create significant near-term upside.
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Jay McCanless (Wedbush) inquired about the timing and magnitude of margin improvement from land cost relief and tariffs. VanHyfte responded that most benefits from recent land deals won’t be seen until 2027, and that ongoing cost reduction efforts are being used to offset modest tariff impacts.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In coming quarters, the StockStory team will closely monitor (1) the pace and profitability of community openings, particularly in the Esplanade segment; (2) the balance between spec and build-to-order home sales and its effect on margins; and (3) ongoing success in land cost management and supplier negotiations. The company’s ability to adapt to shifting buyer preferences and maintain expense discipline will also be critical markers of execution.
Taylor Morrison Home currently trades at $59.85, down from $62.58 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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