Even though Plexus (currently trading at $139.47 per share) has gained 13.9% over the last six months, it has lagged the S&P 500’s 23.8% return during that period. This may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.
Is there a buying opportunity in Plexus, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free for active Edge members.
Why Do We Think Plexus Will Underperform?
We're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons why PLXS doesn't excite us and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Long-Term Revenue Growth Disappoints
A company’s long-term sales performance is one signal of its overall quality. Any business can have short-term success, but a top-tier one grows for years. Unfortunately, Plexus’s 3.5% annualized revenue growth over the last five years was tepid. This was below our standard for the business services sector.
2. Mediocre Free Cash Flow Margin Limits Reinvestment Potential
Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.
Plexus has shown weak cash profitability over the last five years, giving the company limited opportunities to return capital to shareholders. Its free cash flow margin averaged 2.9%, subpar for a business services business.
3. New Investments Fail to Bear Fruit as ROIC Declines
A company’s ROIC, or return on invested capital, shows how much operating profit it makes compared to the money it has raised (debt and equity).
We like to invest in businesses with high returns, but the trend in a company’s ROIC is what often surprises the market and moves the stock price. Over the last few years, Plexus’s ROIC averaged 3.4 percentage point decreases each year. We like what management has done in the past, but its declining returns are perhaps a symptom of fewer profitable growth opportunities.
Final Judgment
Plexus falls short of our quality standards. With its shares lagging the market recently, the stock trades at 18.9× forward P/E (or $139.47 per share). This multiple tells us a lot of good news is priced in - we think there are better opportunities elsewhere. We’d suggest looking at the most dominant software business in the world.
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