ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

3 Out-of-Favor Stocks We’re Skeptical Of

TGT Cover Image

Rock-bottom prices don't always mean rock-bottom businesses. The stocks we're examining today have all touched their 52-week lows, creating a classic investor's dilemma: bargain opportunity or value trap?

While market timing can be an extremely profitable strategy, it has burned many investors and requires rigorous analysis - something we specialize in at StockStory. That said, here are three stocks where the skepticism is well-placed and some better opportunities to consider.

Target (TGT)

One-Month Return: +6.8%

With a higher focus on style and aesthetics compared to other large general merchandise retailers, Target (NYSE: TGT) serves the suburban consumer who is looking for a wide range of products under one roof.

Why Do We Think Twice About TGT?

  1. Weak same-store sales trends over the past two years suggest there may be few opportunities in its core markets to open new locations
  2. Commoditized inventory, bad unit economics, and high competition are reflected in its low gross margin of 28.1%
  3. Earnings per share fell by 4.2% annually over the last six years while its revenue grew, showing its incremental sales were much less profitable

At $91.37 per share, Target trades at 11.8x forward P/E. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including TGT in your portfolio.

Marriott Vacations (VAC)

One-Month Return: -25%

Spun off from Marriott International in 1984, Marriott Vacations (NYSE: VAC) is a vacation company providing leisure experiences for travelers around the world.

Why Do We Steer Clear of VAC?

  1. Sluggish trends in its conducted tours suggest customers aren’t adopting its solutions as quickly as the company hoped
  2. Projected sales are flat for the next 12 months, implying demand will slow from its two-year trend
  3. 7× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio shows it’s overleveraged and increases the probability of shareholder dilution if things turn unexpectedly

Marriott Vacations is trading at $46.87 per share, or 6.4x forward P/E. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than VAC.

Quanex (NX)

One-Month Return: -3.3%

Starting in the seamless tube industry, Quanex (NYSE: NX) manufactures building products like window, door, kitchen, and bath cabinet components.

Why Are We Wary of NX?

  1. Earnings per share fell by 9.6% annually over the last two years while its revenue grew, showing its incremental sales were much less profitable
  2. Capital intensity has ramped up over the last five years as its free cash flow margin decreased by 6.2 percentage points
  3. Shrinking returns on capital from an already weak position reveal that neither previous nor ongoing investments are yielding the desired results

Quanex’s stock price of $13.06 implies a valuation ratio of 6.7x forward P/E. If you’re considering NX for your portfolio, see our FREE research report to learn more.

High-Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions

Fresh US-China trade tensions just tanked stocks—but strong bank earnings are fueling a sharp rebound. Don’t miss the bounce.

Don’t let fear keep you from great opportunities and take a look at Top 5 Growth Stocks for this month. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free. Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Find your next big winner with StockStory today

StockStory is growing and hiring equity analyst and marketing roles. Are you a 0 to 1 builder passionate about the markets and AI? See the open roles here.

Recent Quotes

View More
Symbol Price Change (%)
AMZN  248.40
+0.00 (0.00%)
AAPL  269.43
+0.00 (0.00%)
AMD  243.98
+0.00 (0.00%)
BAC  53.42
+0.00 (0.00%)
GOOG  290.59
+0.00 (0.00%)
META  631.76
+0.00 (0.00%)
MSFT  506.00
+0.00 (0.00%)
NVDA  199.05
+0.00 (0.00%)
ORCL  240.83
+0.00 (0.00%)
TSLA  445.23
+0.00 (0.00%)
Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.