Red Robin’s third quarter results reflected both ongoing challenges and early progress from its new "First Choice" plan. Management credited sequential improvements in guest traffic to the Big Yummm burger promotion, enhanced off-premise sales, and operational efficiencies, particularly in labor. CEO David Pace cited a “90 basis point improvement year-over-year in restaurant level operating profit,” attributing these gains to process changes and technology adoption that maintained guest satisfaction while improving efficiency. Despite a year-over-year sales decline, cost management and targeted promotions supported profitability.
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Red Robin (RRGB) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $265.1 million vs analyst estimates of $256.7 million (3.5% year-on-year decline, 3.3% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: -$0.70 vs analyst estimates of -$0.78 (10% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $7.6 million vs analyst estimates of $4.41 million (2.9% margin, 72.3% beat)
- The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $1.2 billion at the midpoint
- EBITDA guidance for the full year is $65 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $62.89 million
- Operating Margin: -4.6%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Same-Store Sales fell 1.2% year on year (0.6% in the same quarter last year)
- Market Capitalization: $75.27 million
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Red Robin’s Q3 Earnings Call
- Jeremy Hamblin (Craig-Hallum): Asked about the mix and sustainability of the Big Yummm promotion and the outlook for food costs. CEO David Pace confirmed the deal mixed at 8% of sales and food cost pressures, especially beef, are being actively managed with expectations to hold steady in the near term.
- Jeremy Hamblin (Craig-Hallum): Inquired about the financial cost and strategy behind the six-month debt extension and refranchising progress. Pace said the extension carried a 50 basis point cost and that refranchising interest remains in line with earlier expectations, with no finalized deals yet.
- Todd Brooks (Benchmark Stern): Sought insight into further traffic improvement potential from the Big Yummm promotion and marketing timing. Pace noted that marketing was intentionally backloaded into later months and expects further benefit as the promotion matures.
- Todd Brooks (Benchmark Stern): Asked about the impact and expansion plans for data-driven marketing. Pace described significant traffic improvements in targeted cohorts and plans for a phased rollout to more restaurants, with Wilson noting many saw positive year-over-year traffic.
- Mark Smith (Lake Street Capital): Questioned menu mix trends and the sustainability of G&A cost reductions. CFO Todd Wilson explained that menu add-ons and trade-ups have helped maintain average checks, while G&A efficiencies are expected to be sustainable into the next quarter.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking ahead, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the impact of expanded data-driven marketing and menu innovations on traffic trends, (2) the continued performance of off-premise and catering channels as a hedge against in-restaurant softness, and (3) progress on restaurant refreshes and their correlation with guest satisfaction and sales. Execution on refranchising and capital structure optimization will also be important milestones.
Red Robin currently trades at $4.31, down from $4.70 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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