What Happened?
Shares of young adult apparel retailer Tilly’s (NYSE: TLYS) jumped 18% in the afternoon session after investors showed optimism ahead of the company's fiscal third-quarter 2025 earnings report, which was scheduled for release after the market close. The retailer's earnings announcement and subsequent conference call were set for later the same day. The rally suggested investors were hopeful that the company would surpass expectations. Ahead of the release, analysts had estimated an earnings per share (EPS) of $-0.30. One forecast also projected a sales decrease of 4.6% to $136.9 million, which would have marked an improvement from the 7.1% sales decline reported in the prior quarter. The significant stock price increase pointed to positive speculation before the official results were made public.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Tilly’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 79 moves greater than 5% over the last year. But moves this big are rare even for Tilly's and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 2 days ago when the stock dropped 1.4% on the news that reports indicated strong Black Friday retail sales, especially within the apparel sector. Data from Mastercard SpendingPulse showed that U.S. retail sales, not including autos, climbed 4.1% year-over-year on Black Friday. The apparel category was a standout performer, with spending growing 5.7%. This increase was seen both online, which jumped 6.1%, and in physical stores, which rose 5.4%. Overall e-commerce sales also saw a significant boost, rising 10.4%. The strong consumer spending, particularly on clothing, suggested a healthy start to the crucial holiday shopping season for retailers like Tilly's.
Tilly's is down 62% since the beginning of the year, and at $1.73 per share, it is trading 62% below its 52-week high of $4.56 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Tilly’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $184.06.
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