ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

1 Volatile Stock for Long-Term Investors and 2 We Avoid

ARIS Cover Image

A highly volatile stock can deliver big gains - or just as easily wipe out a portfolio if things go south. While some investors embrace risk, mistakes can be costly for those who aren’t prepared.

At StockStory, our job is to help you avoid costly mistakes and stay on the right side of the trade. Keeping that in mind, here is one volatile stock that could deliver huge gains and two best left to the gamblers.

Two Stocks to Sell:

Terex (TEX)

Rolling One-Year Beta: 1.56

With humble beginnings as a dump truck company, Terex (NYSE: TEX) today manufactures lifting and material handling equipment designed to move and hoist heavy goods and materials.

Why Does TEX Fall Short?

  1. Absence of organic revenue growth over the past two years suggests it may have to lean into acquisitions to drive its expansion
  2. Earnings per share have dipped by 16.4% annually over the past two years, which is concerning because stock prices follow EPS over the long term
  3. Free cash flow margin shrank by 6.1 percentage points over the last five years, suggesting the company is consuming more capital to stay competitive

Terex’s stock price of $50.58 implies a valuation ratio of 10.4x forward P/E. Check out our free in-depth research report to learn more about why TEX doesn’t pass our bar.

PAR Technology (PAR)

Rolling One-Year Beta: 1.55

Originally founded in 1968 as a defense contractor for the U.S. government, PAR Technology (NYSE: PAR) provides cloud-based software, payment processing, and hardware solutions that help restaurants manage everything from point-of-sale to customer loyalty programs.

Why Are We Cautious About PAR?

  1. Expenses have increased as a percentage of revenue over the last five years as its adjusted operating margin fell by 6.3 percentage points
  2. Cash-burning tendencies make us wonder if it can sustainably generate shareholder value
  3. Unfavorable liquidity position could lead to additional equity financing that dilutes shareholders

PAR Technology is trading at $69.83 per share, or 265x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with PAR, check out our full research report (it’s free).

One Stock to Buy:

Aris Water (ARIS)

Rolling One-Year Beta: 1.94

Primarily serving the oil and gas industry, Aris Water (NYSE: ARIS) is a provider of water handling and recycling solutions.

Why Are We Backing ARIS?

  1. Impressive 15.1% annual revenue growth over the last two years indicates it’s winning market share this cycle
  2. Incremental sales significantly boosted profitability as its annual earnings per share growth of 35% over the last two years outstripped its revenue performance
  3. Free cash flow profile has moved into positive territory over the last five years, showing the company has crossed a key inflection point

At $22.17 per share, Aris Water trades at 15x forward P/E. Is now the time to initiate a position? See for yourself in our full research report, it’s free.

High-Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions

Donald Trump’s April 2024 "Liberation Day" tariffs sent markets into a tailspin, but stocks have since rebounded strongly, proving that knee-jerk reactions often create the best buying opportunities.

The smart money is already positioning for the next leg up. Don’t miss out on the recovery - check out our Top 6 Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Exlservice (+354% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today for free. Find your next big winner with StockStory today. Find your next big winner with StockStory today

StockStory is growing and hiring equity analyst and marketing roles. Are you a 0 to 1 builder passionate about the markets and AI? See the open roles here.

Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.