ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

Medpace (NASDAQ:MEDP) Reports Strong Q2, Stock Jumps 46%

MEDP Cover Image

Clinical research company Medpace Holdings (NASDAQ: MEDP) reported Q2 CY2025 results exceeding the market’s revenue expectations, with sales up 14.2% year on year to $603.3 million. The company’s full-year revenue guidance of $2.47 billion at the midpoint came in 13% above analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $3.10 per share was 3.5% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy Medpace? Find out by accessing our full research report, it’s free.

Medpace (MEDP) Q2 CY2025 Highlights:

  • Revenue: $603.3 million vs analyst estimates of $542 million (14.2% year-on-year growth, 11.3% beat)
  • EPS (GAAP): $3.10 vs analyst estimates of $3.00 (3.5% beat)
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $130.5 million vs analyst estimates of $117 million (21.6% margin, 11.5% beat)
  • The company lifted its revenue guidance for the full year to $2.47 billion at the midpoint from $2.19 billion, a 12.8% increase
  • EPS (GAAP) guidance for the full year is $14.15 at the midpoint, beating analyst estimates by 11%
  • EBITDA guidance for the full year is $530 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $473.7 million
  • Operating Margin: 20.9%, up from 19.9% in the same quarter last year
  • Free Cash Flow Margin: 23.6%, up from 19.6% in the same quarter last year
  • Organic Revenue rose 14.2% year on year, in line with the same quarter last year
  • Market Capitalization: $8.96 billion

Company Overview

Founded in 1992 as a scientifically-driven alternative to traditional contract research organizations, Medpace (NASDAQ: MEDP) provides outsourced clinical trial management and research services to help pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device companies develop new treatments.

Revenue Growth

Examining a company’s long-term performance can provide clues about its quality. Even a bad business can shine for one or two quarters, but a top-tier one grows for years. Luckily, Medpace’s sales grew at an impressive 20.4% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years. Its growth beat the average healthcare company and shows its offerings resonate with customers, a helpful starting point for our analysis.

Medpace Quarterly Revenue

Long-term growth is the most important, but within healthcare, a half-decade historical view may miss new innovations or demand cycles. Medpace’s annualized revenue growth of 15.5% over the last two years is below its five-year trend, but we still think the results suggest healthy demand. Medpace Year-On-Year Revenue Growth

Medpace also reports organic revenue, which strips out one-time events like acquisitions and currency fluctuations that don’t accurately reflect its fundamentals. Over the last two years, Medpace’s organic revenue averaged 15.7% year-on-year growth. Because this number aligns with its normal revenue growth, we can see the company’s core operations (not acquisitions and divestitures) drove most of its results. Medpace Organic Revenue Growth

This quarter, Medpace reported year-on-year revenue growth of 14.2%, and its $603.3 million of revenue exceeded Wall Street’s estimates by 11.3%.

Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to decline by 2.4% over the next 12 months, a deceleration versus the last two years. This projection is underwhelming and implies its products and services will see some demand headwinds. At least the company is tracking well in other measures of financial health.

Today’s young investors won’t have read the timeless lessons in Gorilla Game: Picking Winners In High Technology because it was written more than 20 years ago when Microsoft and Apple were first establishing their supremacy. But if we apply the same principles, then enterprise software stocks leveraging their own generative AI capabilities may well be the Gorillas of the future. So, in that spirit, we are excited to present our Special Free Report on a profitable, fast-growing enterprise software stock that is already riding the automation wave and looking to catch the generative AI next.

Operating Margin

Operating margin is a key measure of profitability. Think of it as net income - the bottom line - excluding the impact of taxes and interest on debt, which are less connected to business fundamentals.

Medpace has managed its cost base well over the last five years. It demonstrated solid profitability for a healthcare business, producing an average operating margin of 19.4%.

Analyzing the trend in its profitability, Medpace’s operating margin rose by 2.8 percentage points over the last five years, as its sales growth gave it operating leverage. The company’s two-year trajectory shows its performance was mostly driven by its recent improvements. These data points are very encouraging and shows momentum is on its side.

Medpace Trailing 12-Month Operating Margin (GAAP)

In Q2, Medpace generated an operating margin profit margin of 20.9%, up 1 percentage points year on year. This increase was a welcome development and shows it was more efficient.

Earnings Per Share

We track the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) for the same reason as long-term revenue growth. Compared to revenue, however, EPS highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.

Medpace’s EPS grew at an astounding 36.7% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years, higher than its 20.4% annualized revenue growth. This tells us the company became more profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded.

Medpace Trailing 12-Month EPS (GAAP)

Diving into the nuances of Medpace’s earnings can give us a better understanding of its performance. As we mentioned earlier, Medpace’s operating margin expanded by 2.8 percentage points over the last five years. On top of that, its share count shrank by 21.9%. These are positive signs for shareholders because improving profitability and share buybacks turbocharge EPS growth relative to revenue growth. Medpace Diluted Shares Outstanding

In Q2, Medpace reported EPS at $3.10, up from $2.75 in the same quarter last year. This print beat analysts’ estimates by 3.5%. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Medpace’s full-year EPS of $13.45 to shrink by 8.1%.

Key Takeaways from Medpace’s Q2 Results

We were impressed by how significantly Medpace blew past analysts’ expectations across all key metrics this quarter. We were also excited it lifted its full-year guidance. Zooming out, we think this was a solid print. The stock traded up 46% to $451 immediately following the results.

Medpace had an encouraging quarter, but one earnings result doesn’t necessarily make the stock a buy. Let’s see if this is a good investment. We think that the latest quarter is only one piece of the longer-term business quality puzzle. Quality, when combined with valuation, can help determine if the stock is a buy. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here, it’s free.

Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.