What Happened?
Shares of young adult apparel retailer American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO) fell 3.5% in the morning session after Bank of America downgraded the apparel maker to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral'. The downgrade came from Bank of America analyst Christopher Nardone, who also trimmed the firm's price target on the stock to $10 from $11. The bank cited concerns over the impact of higher tariffs and slowing sales at the company's activewear brand, Aerie. In line with this outlook, Bank of America reduced its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for American Eagle for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 by 8% and 30%, respectively. The firm noted that it foresees a "longer path to more normalized earnings in the current environment" for the apparel maker.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
American Eagle’s shares are very volatile and have had 26 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 11 days ago when the stock dropped 4.6% on the news that a hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation report fueled concerns about slowing consumer spending. The market was rattled by a Labor Department report showing the Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, jumped 0.9% in July, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of a 0.2% rise. This was the largest monthly increase since March 2022, reigniting worries that businesses will be forced to pass higher costs on to consumers, who are already showing signs of price sensitivity. This inflation data has fanned concerns that U.S. tariffs on imported goods could start to translate into higher prices for shoppers. The inflation report landed amid growing evidence of consumer caution, with recent reports highlighting that shoppers are cutting back on non-essential spending, seeking out sales, and trading down to cheaper brands.
American Eagle is down 25.9% since the beginning of the year, and at $12.69 per share, it is trading 44.1% below its 52-week high of $22.70 from August 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of American Eagle’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,148.
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