What Happened?
Shares of global hospitality company Marriott (NASDAQ: MAR) jumped 9.1% in the morning session after the company reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that showed a strong outlook for 2026, even though its earnings slightly missed analyst expectations.
Adjusted earnings came in at $2.58 per share, just under the $2.62 consensus estimate, while revenue of $6.69 billion met forecasts. The key driver for the positive reaction was the company's optimistic forecast for the upcoming year. Marriott's adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year 2026 was $5.89 billion at the midpoint, which surpassed Wall Street's estimate of $5.72 billion. This strong earnings outlook overshadowed the slight miss on quarterly profits, signaling to investors that the company anticipates continued profitability. Additionally, the company's adjusted earnings per share guidance of $11.45 for 2026 was in line with analyst expectations, further bolstering investor confidence.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Marriott’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 4 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 12 months ago when the stock dropped 5.1% on the news that the company reported disappointing fourth-quarter results: While full-year EPS fell short of expectations, fourth-quarter revenue and EPS slightly exceeded estimates. However, full-year guidance implied adjusted EPS of $9.82 to $10.19, suggesting moderate growth, and RevPAR (sales generated by each available room - a key performance indicator) growth is expected to decelerate to 2%-4%, which is even more worrisome. Overall, this was a weak quarter.
Marriott is up 14.8% since the beginning of the year, and at $359.66 per share, has set a new 52-week high. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Marriott’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $2,838.
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