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Upstart’s Q2 Earnings Call: Our Top 5 Analyst Questions

By: StockStory

UPST Cover Image

Upstart’s second quarter results for 2025 exceeded Wall Street’s revenue and profit expectations, but the market responded negatively. Management attributed the strong top-line growth to the rollout of Model 22, which leveraged advanced neural networks to improve loan conversion rates and underwriting accuracy. CEO Dave Girouard emphasized that growth was not a result of macroeconomic improvement, but rather “primarily on the back of model improvements,” leading to record originations and the highest volume seen in three years. Despite rapid expansion in new business lines such as Home and Auto, management noted that scaling these products required significant investments, which impacted the overall margin profile.

Is now the time to buy UPST? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

Upstart (UPST) Q2 CY2025 Highlights:

  • Revenue: $257.3 million vs analyst estimates of $226.5 million (102% year-on-year growth, 13.6% beat)
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.36 vs analyst estimates of $0.25 (41.6% beat)
  • Adjusted Operating Income: $41.18 million vs analyst estimates of -$8.61 million (16% margin, significant beat)
  • The company lifted its revenue guidance for the full year to $1.06 billion at the midpoint from $1.01 billion, a 4.5% increase
  • EBITDA guidance for Q3 CY2025 is $56 million at the midpoint, above analyst estimates of $52.64 million
  • Operating Margin: 1.8%, up from -43.5% in the same quarter last year
  • Market Capitalization: $6.10 billion

While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Upstart’s Q2 Earnings Call

  • Peter Christiansen (Citi) asked about the health of the asset-backed securities (ABS) market and competitive pressures. CFO Sanjay Datta described the ABS market as “constructive” for bonds but still selective for equity tranches, while CEO Dave Girouard noted increased competition as funding markets have improved.

  • Ramsey El-Assal (Barclays) inquired about the timeline for shifting new product funding off the balance sheet. Datta explained the transition should occur over the next couple of quarters, with progress depending on new originations and deal flow with external partners.

  • Simon Clinch (Rothschild & Company Redburn) probed the drivers behind the step-up in contribution margin. Datta attributed margin gains to improved take rates and cost efficiencies in the core borrower segment, enabled by the launch of Model 22.

  • Kyle Peterson (Needham) questioned the declining average loan size and whether it was a strategic shift or market response. Girouard clarified it was intentional, reflecting rapid growth in small dollar loans, which are used to attract new users and cross-sell other products.

  • Robert Wildhack (Autonomous Research) asked about volatility in fair value adjustments and competitive dynamics. Datta described several factors influencing fair value, while Girouard outlined how Upstart’s funding strategy and model sophistication help manage adverse selection in a competitive market.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Looking ahead, our analyst team will focus on (1) Upstart’s progress in transitioning Home and Auto loan funding to third-party partners, (2) the ability of Model 22 and future AI enhancements to sustain conversion and margin gains, and (3) the pace at which automation and cross-selling drive adoption in new lending segments. We will also monitor any shifts in the competitive landscape and macro environment that could impact growth and profitability.

Upstart currently trades at $63.60, down from $82.67 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).

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