What Happened?
Shares of digital banking platform Nubank (NYSE: NU) jumped 1.9% in the morning session after it received positive analyst commentary and the launch of a new investment product.
Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating and maintained a $21 price target on the company's stock, calling it one of its “best ideas.” The firm's positive outlook was based on expected earnings growth in 2026–2027. Separately, Morgan Stanley highlighted Nubank's progress in artificial intelligence, better deposit pricing plans in Brazil and Mexico, and new business in the small and medium enterprise sector.
Adding to the positive news, the company's Nu Asset division launched NLFA11, a new private credit exchange-traded fund (ETF). This move was part of its plan to offer new and clear investment options using technology.
After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $16.18, up 2% from previous close.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Nubank’s shares are quite volatile and have had 16 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 27 days ago when the stock gained 3.9% on the news that investors grew more optimistic about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December.
The positive sentiment was fueled by comments from New York Fed President John Williams, a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, who stated the central bank could cut rates "in the near term" without jeopardizing its inflation targets. Following his remarks, market expectations for a rate cut in December shifted significantly.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December rate reduction surged from a 37% chance earlier in the day to 70%. While lower rates can compress bank profit margins, investors often view them as a catalyst for broader economic activity, potentially boosting loan demand and reducing the risk of defaults.
Nubank is up 52.2% since the beginning of the year, and at $16.18 per share, it is trading close to its 52-week high of $17.65 from December 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Nubank’s shares at the IPO in December 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $1,566.
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