The recent Bitcoin market presents a complex long-short game. Although the price encountered selling pressure before the key resistance level of $98,000, on-chain data and institutional trends show that the market may be brewing a structural change. The current BTC network activity index has fallen back to the bear market range since December 2024, the number of daily active addresses has dropped 37% from the peak, and the on-chain transaction volume has shrunk to an average of 2.3 million transactions per day. XBIT (dex Exchange) analysts said: This cooling phenomenon is highly similar to the market characteristics during the period of China’s regulatory shock in 2021, but historical experience shows that such liquidity contraction does not necessarily indicate a trend reversal.

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As the current price tests the $98,000 resistance level, the Fibonacci retracement tool reveals a multi-level price structure: 0.236 ($95,656) and 0.382 ($96,347) form a short-term bull-bear watershed, while 0.5 ($94,799) and 0.618 ($92,171) form a strong support band. The Stochastic RSI indicator is in the neutral range of 41.55, suggesting that prices may remain volatile before breaking through. XBIT (dex Exchange) analysts pointed out that it is worth noting that the 30-day historical volatility has dropped to a year-low of 25.8%. This low-volatility environment is often accompanied by a risk of a change in the market. XBIT statistics show that in the past three years, the probability of a price fluctuation of more than 15% within 20 days after a similar volatility low is 68%.

In contrast to the decline in retail trading volume, institutional funds continue to flow in. XBIT data shows that a total of $5.13 billion of funds have entered the Bitcoin market through compliant channels in the past three weeks, among which institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity continue to increase their holdings: BlackRock increased its holdings by 280 BTC (worth $37.8 million) this week, and Metaplanet increased its holdings by 555 BTC during the same period. XBIT (dex Exchange) analysts said: This configuration behavior reflects that institutions are taking advantage of the current price platform period to strategically build positions, especially the open interest of call options in the options market has increased by 22% compared with last month, indicating that the market is betting on breaking through resistance levels.

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The short-term market focus turns to the July FOMC interest rate meeting. The interest rate decision and dot plot adjustment may trigger institutional capital flows of $20-30 billion. XBIT historical data shows that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index often jumps above 0.7 within a week after the Fed’s policy changes. At the same time, whale cluster monitoring shows that addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC are building defensive positions in the $92,000-94,000 range, an area that has withstood selling pressure four times since the bull market started in 2023.

XBIT (dex Exchange) strategists cautioned: “The current market presents a typical “diffusion triangle” pattern, which often indicates a major change. If the $98,000 resistance zone is effectively broken, the coordination of volume and price may trigger a chain reaction of stop-loss orders in the algorithmic trading system, pushing prices to the psychological barrier of $100,000. On the contrary, if the $96,347 support fails to hold, it may retrace to the institutional position-building concentrated area of ​​$92,171-94,799.” The derivatives market presents a delicate balance, with Bitcoin futures holdings remaining at the historical median level of $4.2 billion, but the perpetual contract funding rate has climbed to 0.03%, indicating that bulls are beginning to have a mild advantage.

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Despite the short-term technical pressure, on-chain data and institutional behavior show that the market is accumulating upward momentum. The current liquidity vacuum below $92,000 provides an ideal re-accumulation range for large holders, and the skewness indicator of the options market shows that the put option premium has narrowed from 18% in June to 9%, reflecting that market sentiment is neutral. XBIT (dex Exchange) Investment Officer pointed out: “Investors need to focus on the direction of capital flows after the FOMC meeting and the validity verification of the $98,000 breakthrough. In this process, the continued inflow of institutional funds and the strategic layout of whales may provide unexpected resilience to the market. XBIT protects investors’ funds: enjoy multi-signature technology and insurance protection; ensure the high security of assets; ensure that assets comply with international financial regulatory standards; ensure that assets can be flexibly liquidated when needed; automatically generate tax reports to reduce tax burdens.”

Disclaimer: The information provided in this press release is not a solicitation for investment, nor is it intended as investment advice, financial advice, or trading advice. It is strongly recommended you practice due diligence, including consultation with a professional financial advisor, before investing in or trading cryptocurrency and securities.