ETFOptimize | High-performance ETF-based Investment Strategies

Quantitative strategies, Wall Street-caliber research, and insightful market analysis since 1998.


ETFOptimize | HOME
Close Window

The truth behind Enphase's CEO buying stock lately

Enphase stock price

When Wall Street insiders talk, it is sometimes helpful to hear them out. A few gems may be gotten from their extensive reports, assuming you can get through them without dozing off into deep sleep. Anyways, analysts at The Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) have something to share with you today.

While some may be celebrating the recent declines in the price of oil, which amounted to downside moves of more than 22.0%, its sudden rally to $75.0 may be proving Goldman's theory correct. In short, there is a projection for oil to go as high as $100.0 a barrel in 2024, and here's what that means to you:

Forget about trying to save at the gas pump; nobody got rich by saving money anyway. Instead, focus on supercharging your portfolio with alternative energy stocks like Enphase Energy (NASDAQ: ENPH). This will likely call for investment dollars once the oil becomes 'too expensive.'

A game of dominoes

Before you jump to conclusions, whether bullish or bearish, it is essential to understand the game plan here. Remember, it is such a good gameplan that even the company's CEO has been buying stock ahead of time.

You see, because oil is cheap - relative to historical prices - most companies and consumers don't really mind keeping oil as their first choice for energy solutions. Unsurprisingly, lower oil prices spur economic activity, as seen in the recent quarter of U.S. GDP growth.

But what happens when oil inevitably returns to higher prices? Inevitably because the world of commodities is ruled by cycles. Well, it won't mean the end of the world as you know it. Still, it will cause consumers and businesses to seek alternative energy sources to fulfill their needs.

When oil goes up, natural gas and other commodities also tend to go up; remember, that world is all about cycles. That means that the average electricity bill could be higher for many people if that happens.

Think about this quickly: what is the next most popular/convenient energy source for residences today? If you guessed solar energy, congratulations, you won at bingo!

Because that occurrence is almost a given in the eyes of many experienced investors, some have been jumping into this coming wave with an absolutely bullish view. Starting with analysts.

Check this, then that

With a price target of $170.1 a share, analysts imply that this stock needs to rise by as much as 27.0% from today's prices to meet these projections. However, these targets are based on current estimates; where will they go once Enphase reports the benefits of added business?

But before you speculate where this stock could go, check out the price action it has delivered in the past year. This stock is trading at 42.0% of its 52-week high price, which stood as high as $230.0 a share. A recovery to its 52-week high could almost double the upside analysts see today.

Checking the other end of the spectrum, oil giant Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) has declined by 12.4% in the past quarter alone, right along with a 5.6% decline in the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA: XLE), which mostly holds these same oil names.

While Exxon stock is trading at a 10.1x price-to-earnings ratio, Enphase is going for a 33.7x multiple, meaning that the markets see something big coming for the stock to justify them overpaying for a name that has underperformed so badly during 2023.

Knowing what you know now, is it surprising to learn that Enphase's CEO bought up to 1,118 shares of stock as recently as November 16th this year? By the way, that purchase equated to a total investment of $100.8 thousand.

Understanding that the stock has risen since the purchase, it wouldn't be too far-fetched to expect further buys, especially when the winds of demand start sweeping into the solar industry. 

Keep in mind, last but not least, that the VIX is at its lowest level since 2019, and a sudden pop in volatility could hurt stocks. Considering that Enphase is trading at 42.0% of its 52-week high, the downside this name faces is not nearly as high as the upside it proposes.

If there's one fundamental relationship you take away from this, let it be that the last time oil rose in price from the $70s a barrel all the way to $110.0 a barrel, Enphase stock raced to its all-time high price of $339.9 a share. History may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.

Stock Quote API & Stock News API supplied by www.cloudquote.io
Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes.
By accessing this page, you agree to the following
Privacy Policy and Terms Of Service.


 

IntelligentValue Home
Close Window

DISCLAIMER

All content herein is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor should it be interpreted as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security.  All opinions, analyses, and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. We undertake no obligation to update such opinions, analysis or information. You should independently verify all information contained on this website. Some information is based on analysis of past performance or hypothetical performance results, which have inherent limitations. We make no representation that any particular equity or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Shareholders, employees, writers, contractors, and affiliates associated with ETFOptimize.com may have ownership positions in the securities that are mentioned. If you are not sure if ETFs, algorithmic investing, or a particular investment is right for you, you are urged to consult with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Neither this website nor anyone associated with producing its content are Registered Investment Advisors, and no attempt is made herein to substitute for personalized, professional investment advice. Neither ETFOptimize.com, Global Alpha Investments, Inc., nor its employees, service providers, associates, or affiliates are responsible for any investment losses you may incur as a result of using the information provided herein. Remember that past investment returns may not be indicative of future returns.

Copyright © 1998-2017 ETFOptimize.com, a publication of Optimized Investments, Inc. All rights reserved.