London, United Kingdom--(Newsfile Corp. - August 12, 2025) - GeonatIQ, a leader in AI innovation for the energy, resources, and climate sectors, has unveiled its new carbon market forecasting engine - a powerful AI system built to help traders, corporates, and policymakers navigate the €781 billion EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the world's largest carbon market. With prices forecast by BloombergNEF to rise from €70 to €149 per tonne by 2030, and ETS Phase II expected to channel €705 billion into climate finance, the timing couldn't be more critical. Yet nearly half of all allowance holders still don't actively trade - highlighting a growing demand for smarter tools that can turn raw data into real market insight.

To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/9032/262081_a4c0f7da648afab1_002full.jpg

GeonatIQ's mission is to modernise resources and sustainability workflows through AI-powered tools, supporting stakeholders in areas such as commodities analysis, resource intelligence, and regulatory insight. Its team of AI engineers, geoscientists, and data strategists has developed an AI engine that provides structured, data-driven perspectives on carbon market dynamics.

While the EU ETS represents a massive and liquid marketplace, many participants still face challenges accessing timely, interpretable signals. GeonatIQ's models aim to bridge this gap by offering analytics and scenario planning capabilities across 1-9 month ahead outlooks.

"Carbon pricing is too strategic to rely on intuition, so we chose an AI approach," said Yassine Charouif, AI Solutions Architect at GeonatIQ. "Our system is designed to decode the market's structure and adapt dynamically - helping traders, corporates, and policymakers engage with forward-looking insights more effectively. In backtesting over a 3-month ahead prediction horizon, it achieved a Sharpe ratio well above 3, demonstrating exceptional risk-adjusted performance and consistent signal quality."

Recent Research Highlights

A recent academic collaboration with Imperial College London - co-authored by GeonatIQ's founder Antony Sommerfeld, Charouif, and climate expert Professor Yves Plancherel - showcases the strength of GeonatIQ's meta-learning architecture in long-horizon forecasting contexts. The paper, currently the no.1 most downloaded in its category, provides evidence of the methodology's robustness relative to traditional statistical models.

"Our AI doesn't just analyse - it anticipates patterns," said Sommerfeld. "We built this engine from scratch using deep learning, signal decomposition, and adaptive training - to help organisations interpret complex carbon signals with greater clarity. With nearly half of EU ETS allowance holders not trading in a typical year, there's a clear need for tools that turn passive holders into informed, active market participants."

Designed for Informed Decision-Making

• Built for traders, corporates, policymakers, and sustainability leaders
• Includes benchmark December EUA futures
• Real-time signal interpretation available through configurable dashboards or tailored reports (including GUI-based interfaces)
• Supports scenario testing, pattern recognition, and risk signalling for carbon market participants

Coming Soon: The Carbon LLM

GeonatIQ will launch its Carbon LLM in Q4 - a large-scale AI system designed to read regulatory news, energy events, and macroeconomic signals. Trained using a strict forward-looking approach, it combines historical price data with contextual features to forecast market dynamics initially up to 30 days ahead. The LLM will simulate policy and market scenarios (e.g. CBAM delays, supply shocks) and enhance numerical forecasts with real-time context.

"By fusing market data with LLM-driven news insights, we've seen accuracy improvements of up to 42% in our short-term EU ETS modelling tests," said Simranjeet Singh, GeonatIQ research student at Imperial College London. "It's especially valuable for spotting those mid-horizon movements where evolving market narratives can make all the difference."

GeonatIQ's Executive Director emphasises that the breakthrough lies not only in speed, but in the depth of contextual understanding.

"This isn't just about market sentiment - it's about the AI truly understanding context," said Mike Schuil. "We've built a kind of crystal ball here for the carbon market - a system that can simulate news stories before they happen and predict how the market is likely to respond. It's not just a forecasting tool, it's a strategic advantage - and one we'll soon roll out across energy, metals, and other major commodity markets."

GeonatIQ welcomes conversations with partners across the carbon market ecosystem - from traders and corporates to policymakers and sustainability leaders - who are interested in applying AI to unlock new insights and strategies.

About GeonatIQ

GeonatIQ is a UK-based AI company operating at the intersection of climate, energy, and resource markets. The firm develops proprietary forecasting models and decision intelligence systems to deliver data-driven insights across carbon trading, sustainability, natural resources, and global commodities. Its team combines AI engineers, geoscientists, economists, and data strategists to provide practical, forward-looking solutions for complex market environments.

Read our latest academic paper here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5292236

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/262081