What Happened?
Shares of biotechnology company Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) fell 4.8% in the afternoon session after competitors Pfizer and BioNTech announced positive topline results for their updated 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine formula. The data from Pfizer and BioNTech showed their vaccine produced a robust immune response, signaling continued strong competition in the COVID-19 vaccine market.
This news overshadowed Moderna's own presentation at the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference on the same day. At the conference, CEO Stéphane Bancel outlined strategic priorities but also noted the company faces market uncertainties and is targeting cash flow break-even by 2028. The combination of strong competitor data and a distant profitability target likely concerned investors about Moderna's relative position and near-term growth.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Moderna’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 50 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 12 days ago when the stock gained 3.6% on the news that the company announced it received U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for its updated COVID-19 vaccines for the 2025-2026 season.
The approval covers the company's Spikevax® and new mNEXSPIKE® vaccines, which are formulated to target the LP.8.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2.
According to the announcement, the updated Spikevax is approved for individuals from 6 months to 64 years of age with at least one underlying condition, and for all adults 65 and older. The approval provides a clear path for Moderna to commercialize its latest vaccine ahead of the fall season, with the company stating the shots are expected to be available in the coming days. CEO Stéphane Bancel highlighted the public health need, noting that COVID-19 was responsible for nearly half a million hospitalizations last year.
Moderna is down 42.9% since the beginning of the year, and at $23.99 per share, it is trading 69.8% below its 52-week high of $79.51 from September 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Moderna’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $441.46.
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