Collaborator, a PR distribution marketplace that connects brands with media outlets worldwide, has released a new study answering a question many SEO specialists and marketers face in practice: which traffic data should you rely on when choosing a website for placement?
The short answer is: it's essential to analyze data from multiple sources.
The key finding: Google's own tools don't perfectly align
The Collaborator team, together with Serhii Koksharov, analyzed the correlation between Google Analytics (GA), Google Search Console (GSC), and Ahrefs using traffic data from 7,500+ websites.
The analysis revealed the following:
- Ahrefs vs. Google Search Console: 0.67 (highest correlation)
- Ahrefs vs. Google Analytics: 0.59
- Google Analytics vs. Google Search Console: 0.42 (lowest correlation)
So the strongest alignment is between Ahrefs and GSC, while the weakest is between Google Analytics and GSC.
In other words, the largest discrepancy appears between Google's own tools.
Why this matters
Google Search Console is one of the most reliable sources for understanding how a website performs in search.
What's important is that Ahrefs aligns better with GSC than Google Analytics does. That makes Ahrefs a more reliable directional signal when you don't have direct access to a website's internal data.
Google Analytics can miss or distort part of organic traffic, for several reasons:
- some search clicks are recorded as "direct";
- referrer data gets lost;- filtering works differently across systems;
- newer search formats (like AI results) are not tracked consistently.
An important point is that correlation in traffic data depends on several factors. Let's discuss them.
What Correlation Depends On
The correlation between traffic data from GA, GSC, and Ahrefs is influenced by total traffic volume and the website's GEO.
1. Correlation varies depending on total website traffic.
During the analysis, the Collaborator team identified a clear pattern: the higher the traffic, the less precise the data across GA, GSC, and Ahrefs.
While Ahrefs still reflects overall trends, absolute values can differ more significantly for high-traffic websites.
There are also edge cases where one tool shows zero traffic while another shows activity. Although rare, this highlights an important point: relying on a single metric is risky when evaluating a website.
2. Correlation varies depending on a website's GEO
The relationship between traffic data also changes depending on the region. For Ukrainian websites, the gap between Google Analytics and Google Search Console is the most noticeable, while Ahrefs aligns much more closely with Search Console. This makes Ahrefs a more reliable reference point for SEO analysis in this GEO.
In Europe and the United States, the picture is more balanced. All three tools show moderate alignment, although Google Analytics still tends to be slightly less consistent compared to Ahrefs and Search Console.
Overall, while data across European and U.S. websites is more stable, no single metric tells the full story. Taking GEO into account and comparing multiple sources remains the most reliable approach.
Conclusion
No single traffic source tells the full story. Google Search Console is the best starting point, Ahrefs works well as a supporting signal, and Google Analytics should be treated with caution for organic traffic.
The key takeaway is simple: Ahrefs and GSC align more closely, while GA often differs. When choosing websites for PR or link building, it's better to look at multiple signals and focus on search visibility, not just raw traffic numbers.
Read the full study: https://collaborator.pro/blog/traffic-correlation-ahrefs-ga-gsc-study
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Country: Estonia
Website: https://collaborator.pro/
