What Happened?
Shares of financial technology company PROG Holdings (NYSE: PRG) jumped 6.5% in the afternoon session after investors grew more optimistic about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December.
The positive sentiment was fueled by comments from New York Fed President John Williams, a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, who stated the central bank could cut rates "in the near term" without jeopardizing its inflation targets. Following his remarks, market expectations for a rate cut in December shifted significantly. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December rate reduction surged from a 37% chance earlier in the day to 70%. While lower rates can compress bank profit margins, investors often view them as a catalyst for broader economic activity, potentially boosting loan demand and reducing the risk of defaults.
The shares closed the day at $28.11, up 5.9% from previous close.
Is now the time to buy PROG? Access our full analysis report here.
What Is The Market Telling Us
PROG’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 12 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 29 days ago when the stock dropped 5.7% on the news that the company reported third-quarter results and issued a full-year revenue forecast that fell short of analyst estimates, citing the sale of its Vive Financial portfolio and a challenging consumer environment. Although the company's third-quarter revenue and profit beat expectations, sales still fell by 1.8% compared to the previous year. More importantly, the full-year revenue guidance of $2.42 billion at the midpoint came in 2.1% below analysts' forecasts. Management noted the revised outlook was influenced by a difficult operating environment, soft demand for consumer durable goods, and persistent consumer challenges. These challenges included ongoing inflationary pressures and growing financial stress among lower-income households. Adding to concerns, analysts also expected the company's profit margin to shrink over the next three years.
PROG is down 34.3% since the beginning of the year, and at $27.77 per share, it is trading 43.5% below its 52-week high of $49.14 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of PROG’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $429.88.
The 1999 book Gorilla Game predicted Microsoft and Apple would dominate tech before it happened. Its thesis? Identify the platform winners early. Today, enterprise software companies embedding generative AI are becoming the new gorillas. Click here for access to our special report that reveals one profitable leader already riding this wave.
